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- 2004.04.27
If June is approaching, Intel must be preparing a newly improved
and faster than ever before version of the erstwhile Pentium 4
processor.
Yes, Intel watchers, in a performance breakthrough worthy of the
mighty Motorola, the Pentium 4 will move from 3.2 GHz, where
it's been stuck since last summer, to a stupendous 3.6 GHz in June.
And if that whopping 12.5% increase in clock speed isn't
enough to make Power Mac G5 users
jealous, just wait until you hear what Intel has named there newest,
hottest (literally as well as figuratively) CPU:
Pentium 4 Extreme Edition
And I'm not making this up, despite my position as Low End Mac's
official rumor monger (it even says so on my Macworld Expo pass!).
Even I never would have believed that a marketing-driven company like
Intel would dare to call something as stodgy as a CPU an "extreme
edition."
What's next, a PowerPC G5 Turbozoom Scorcher?
Okay, the P4EE does move the Pentium family forward a bit more
than just a 12.5% faster clock speed might indicate. Using 90nm
technology, Intel expects to boost the P4 to 3.8 GHz in August
(that's yet another 5.5% increase) and 4.0 GHz in October (2.26% more
blazing speed).
Be still my impatient heart!
Pentium 4 History
Mac users had a real laugh at Intel's expense when the Pentium 4
became perhaps the first CPU in history to offer less processing
power per megahertz than its predecessor. The general consensus
was that the P4 offered about 70% as much number crunching power as a
Pentium III as the same MHz rating. That means that a 1.5 GHz P4
might or might not outperform a 1 GHz PIII depending on just
what the benchmark was measuring.
Not that this bothered Intel. It was a calculated risk that paid
off in spades. Knowing that most people don't know much about
computer hardware - but that everyone knows faster is better -
Intel sacrificed efficiency for the marketable advantage of bragging
rights in the Megahertz War.
You remember the Megahertz War, don't you? That's where Motorola
fell flat on their fact trying to produce a 500 MHz G4 so Apple could
ship the computers they promised. It only took Moto six months to
fulfill that promise.
Intel brought the Pentium 4 to market in November 2000 with plenty
of hoopla. The fastest Pentium III was 1 GHz, and the P4 debuted
at 1.5 GHz. So what if that was really as powerful as the PIII at
1 GHz - 1.5 GHz just sounded faster.
By April 2001, the 1.6 GHz P4 was shipping, and in July Intel
pushed that to 1.8 GHz. By the end of August 2001, the 2.0 GHz
Pentium 4 was available.
Date
Speed
Increase
2000.11.20
1.5 GHz
n/a
2001.04.23
1.6 GHz
6.7%
2001.07.02
1.8 GHz
5.8%
2001.08.27
2.0 GHz
11.1%
2002.01.07
2.2 GHz
10.0%
2002.04.02
2.4 GHz
9.1%
2002.05.06
2.53 GHz
5.4%
2002.08.26
2.8 GHz
10.7%
2002.11.14
3.06 GHz
9.3%
2003.06.23
3.2 GHz
4.6%
2004.03
3.4 GHz
6.3%
2004.06
3.6 GHz
5.9%
On a year-to-year basis, the P4 was running at a one-third faster
clock speed after one year on the market. A year after that CPU speed
had improved by just over 50% - and Intel essentially
stagnated at 3.06-3.2 GHz from Nov. 2002 until last month.
Remember how long Macs were stuck at 500 MHz - and how
long the G5 has been stuck at 2.0 GHz? How does sixteen months
with virtually no forward progress in CPU speed grab you? That's what
Intel has been suffering through.
If Intel hits the 4.0 GHz mark in October, the fastest P4 will be
25% faster than on the P4's third birthday. I think Intel has run
smack dab into Moore's Law - a situation Mac users know all
too well from the 500 MHz G4 era.
But if all goes according to plan, we'll have dual 3.0 GHz
G5s in August, a 50% increase in speed over the course of a
single year. Intel hasn't managed something that impressive since
2002, and it looks like the P4 design may be running out of
steam.
Intel, we feel your pain. We waited for the
500 MHz G4 from August 2000 until February 2001 and then longed
for anything faster. And then the dam burst, and Apple unveiled a
733 MHz G4 in Jan. 2001.
That July the top-end
moved to 867 MHz, and January 2002 saw the advent of the
1 GHz Power Mac. Power Mac G4 performance peaked with a dual
CPU 1.42 GHz model in January 2003, and that was replaced by the 2.0
GHz dual processor G5 last summer.
When the P4 shipped in Nov. 2000, the fastest Mac ran at 450 MHz.
By Jan. 2003, when the fastest Power Mac G4 was released, the top-end
G4 was running at over 3 times the speed of the fastest first
generation G4. Over the same period, Intel had gone from 1.5 GHz to
3.06 GHz, just a tiny bit over 2x the speed of the original
P4.
Now IBM and Apple are promising a 50% improvement in CPU speed in
a single year, but the 4.0 GHz P4 expected in October only has a 25%
faster clock speed than today's P4.
Whatever the reason, we're seeing far more progress in
speeding up the PowerPC family of processors than Intel is getting
from their complex Pentium 4 CPUs. If things continue at this rate,
Mac may have GHz parity with Intel PCs somewhere around April
2006.
Unlike Intel fans, we don't celebrate 4.6% and 6.3% speed bumps.
200 MHz more speed simply isn't that impressive when you're already
running 16 times that fast.
And we've still got more efficient processors than they do.
Keep an eye on your rearview mirror, Intel. We're gaining on
you.
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