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More LEM visitors use Firefox than any other browser. Home / Editorial / The Rumor Mill iPod Sport, the SUV of Digital Music Players 2004.12.22 In the old days of MacWeek, Apple used to send up "trial balloons" to see how the market might respond to a new product. Today we have websites that exist only because of Mac rumors, and they've been at the forefront of the "flash iPod" craze. As always, this column is based on no inside sources. Instead let's try to think like a marketer. How would you sell a lower-capacity iPod to the public? Low Cost First off, it has to have a lower price. No matter how much smaller or cooler it might be, if it costs more than the US$249 iPod mini, not too many people are going to line up to buy it. Compared to hard drives, flash memory is expensive. A 4 GB Compact Flash card sells for $370-400 these days, but the Hitachi 4 GB MicroDrive sells for just $220 configured for use in a Compact Flash slot. It kinda makes you wonder how Apple can sell a 4 GB iPod mini for $249 and make a profit. Looking at the market, you can buy a SanDisk 256 MB MP3 player for $70, a 512 MB player for $115, and a 1 MB model for $154. There are no 2 GB models for an obvious reason -- they'd cost at least as much as the iPod mini. TypeStyler For Mac OS X is Now Shipping! Download The Free Fully Functional 60 Day Tryout at www.typestyler.com Remember that we're dealing with Apple here, and that means a premium price that people are willing to pay. If others can sell 1 GB digital music players for $150 and up, Apple will probably sell the same capacity for $199. A 512 MB model might reach the market at $149. Should we hold out for 256 MB at $99? While Apple could do it, I don't think there's enough profit at that price point for Apple to go that low. And, unlike at least one website, I don't think Apple will cut costs by leaving the screen off the flash iPod. That's just silly. Low Capacity Apple markets the iPod mini as storing up to 1,000 songs on a 4 GB hard drive. That means a 1 GB flash iPod would store 250 songs, 512 MB would have room for 125 songs, and a 256 MB model would only have room for 60-65 tracks. Would you spend $100 for a device that only stored 60-65 songs when you can buy an MP3 CD player with 160 track capacity for about the same price? That's another reason I think a 256 MB player would be difficult for Apple to market. Small Size The iPod mini showed that people are willing to pay a premium for a smaller package, and a flash iPod could be even smaller than the iPod mini. Still, I don't think size alone is going to drive the flash iPod market. Solid State While I believe lower cost and a smaller size will be selling points that help offset the lower capacity of a flash iPod, I don't think they are compelling reasons in and of themselves. There should be a more tangible benefit. There is -- flash memory. You can run some flash memory devices through the laundry, drop it, and sit on it without destroying it. Hard drives are relatively fragile, and that's part of the reason for the iPod mini's aluminum case. Better yet, you can jog with solid state memory and not worry about damaging a hard drive. This is the tangible benefit, which leads me to the conclusion that Apple will christen the new model the iPod sport. Instead of spending $249 for an iPod mini and adding a waterproof housing, the iPod sport could be water resistant from the box. Scuba, snorkeling, skiing (snow and water) are just the tip of the iceberg. My guess is that we'll see the iPod sport in underwater yellow as one of two or three color options. Red and blue are my other guesses -- no white or brushed aluminum this time, just very solid plastic. Sure, Apple will sell the iPod sport to people who aren't into sports, just like the auto industry sells SUVs to people who never take them off road. And I think the iPod sport will be as hot as SUVs were before gas prices went up, especially if Apple offers 1 GB at $199. - Anne Onymus <This article is available in a printer-friendly version.> Low End Mac Reader Specials TypeStyler For Mac OS X is Now Shipping! Download The Free Fully Functional 60 Day Tryout at www.typestyler.com OWC: Get the Right Memory for Your Mac Top Quality, Competitive Price, Lifetime Backed Free Expert Support + Installation Videos too! MacBook & mini 8GB, iMac 16GB, Mac Pro up to 32GB. Click here Don't install Parallels to play poker online! Poker Mac will show you how to download and install a native Mac poker application such as Full Tilt Poker Mac. Laptop Hardware Provided by TechRestore - Overnight Mac & iPod Repairs. Compare products like desktop computers, apple laptops, apple macs, and LCD Monitors side by side! All the information and reviews to make the best purchasing decision for new mobile phones, sat nav systems, or MP3 players. The Ciao online shopping community makes searching products easy for you. Recent Rumor Mills Microsoft Announces Cash for Clunker PCs, 07.29. Beleaguered Microsoft, with declines in profits and market share, is offering cash for old computers to boost sales of new PCs with Windows Vista installed. StealthMac: 2 Hardware Solutions for Mac OS X on Windows PCs, 01.26. Apple has been working on hardware to put a Mac inside a Windows PC for over a decade. The latest developments, according to our MacMole. Apple Announces Mac OS X Licensing, 01.14. Apple decided it would rather switch policies than fight Pystar and others. OS X licensing program could change Psystar's future. New Apple drive supports Blu-ray and HD DVD, 09.11. Tired of being second-guessed and sometimes outmaneuvered by Microsoft, Apple has embraced both next gen DVD formats with its new SuperDrive Extreme. More in the Rumor Mill index. 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Whatever Apple has planned will leverage existing technologies while going beyond what its competitors can offer. i5 iMac Benchmarked, Mac mini 'Shouldn't Be Overlooked', Twitter Client for Classic Mac OS, and More, Mac News Review, 11.20. Also why Apple leaves the low end to others, 10.6.2 fixes video playback problem in 27" iMac, 3D Leopard and Snow Leopard performance, and more. Apple #4 in Reliability, Apple Tablet a Gadget for All?, HP's i7 Notebook Outdoes Mac Rivals, and More, The 'Book Review, 11.20. Also Flash 10.1 improves video on Hackintosh netbooks, thin-and-light notebooks impress, Windows XP finally on the way out, and more. NASA Chemical Sensor for iPhone, Smartphone Death Match, iPhone Earrings, and More, Ian R Campbell, 11.20. Also mobile phone dangers, new apps, GPS solution for iPod touch, new iPod and iPhone cases, and more. Replacing the Hard Drive in a Clamshell iBook, John Hatchett, Recycled Computing, 11.19. Yes, it is one of the most difficult Apple notebooks to disassemble and reassemble, but a 10 GB hard drive just will not do. IBM Model F: A Great Old Keyboard with an Outdated Layout, Tommy Thomas, Welcome to Macintosh, 11.19. Although it used a different technology than the revered IBM Model M keyboard, the Model F was a great keyboard in its own right. Soft Touch Keyboards, Wireless Mouse Options, Loving SeaMonkey 2, and More, Charles W. Moore, Miscellaneous Ramblings, 11.18. Also the future of browsing with PowerPC Macs and the multiple mouse input bug introduced with OS X 10.5.8. More links in our archive. Recent Deals Best eMac Deals, 11.18. Used 1 GHz Combo, $100; SuperDrive, $269; 1.25 GHz Combo, $119; SD, $319; 1.42 GHz Combo, $289; SD, $498. Best Mac OS X 10.6 and Mac Box Set Deals, 11.18. "Snow Leopard", single user, $25; 5 users, $45; Mac Box Set, single user, $139; 5 users, $180; Server, $414. Shipping included. Best Xserve Deals, 11.18. 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