The floppy disk is dead, but what will replace it?
For software distribution, nothing seems to rival CD-ROM. Almost
every computer has a CD-ROM drive, the 650 MB capacity is sufficient
for almost anything (except for some very involved games), and they can
be pressed for well under $1 per disk.
Zip drives are relatively inexpensive, adding $100 or more to the
cost of a computer system. But the disks themselves are still $20 each.
Still, they're relatively fast, have a decent capacity, and seem to be
showing up everywhere.
SuperDisk is too slow to make serious inroads. CD-R is still to
expensive. DVD-RAM costs even more. And the new Iomega Clik drive seems
too little, too late.
Thinking Different
Leave it to Sony, the Apple of the consumer electronics world, to
come up with a solid state alternative to spinning disks.
The
Memory Stick is
small, measuring about 0.85" wide, 2" long, and 0.1" thick (21.5 x 50 x
2.8mm). That's a little thinner than a 3.5" floppy, half as long, and
about as wide as a stick of gum.
Media will initially ship in 4 MB, 8
MB, and 16 MB capacities. I think we can safely assume higher
capacity sticks in the future.
The Memory Stick uses flash memory and communicates serially with
your computer, organizer, digital camera, MP3 player, etc. That's right
- it's cross platform not just among computers, but designed to work in
all manner of consumer electronics (maybe even the next Play
Station).
Write speed is 1.5 MB/s (megabytes per second), identical to the
12Mb/s (megabits per second) of USB. Read speed is faster at 2.45MB/s.
Based on this, a USB connected Memory Stick reader/writer is probably
something we'll see within the next year or so.
Also expect to see Memory Stick "drives" available in personal
computers when this new technology achieves worldwide distribution -
maybe even as a standard feature in a future iMac.
At this size, it could become very popular for digital cameras,
especially since you'd no longer have to send data from the camera to
the computer via a slow serial connection. Eject the Stick, pop it into
your computer, and read it. Although slower than your hard drive, read
speed should be comparable to that of a fast CD-ROM drive.
Sony is projecting 3,300 yen for a 4 MB Stick, 4,400 yen for an 8 MB
Stick, and 11,000 yen for the Memory Stick PC Card Adapter. At the
current exchange rate, this translates to about $28 for a 4 MB Stick,
$37 for an 8 MB Stick, and $92 for the PC Card that lets them work with
a computer. (I can't find pricing for the 16 MB Memory Stick on Sony's
site.)
Pros and Cons
The Memory Stick Adapter should be cost competitive with Zip drives
and SuperDisk. The speed will be excellent, and response should be
instantaneous - no need to spin a disk up to speed before you can
access it.
Like Zips and floppies, the media can be reused.
But from a strictly computer perspective, media looks very
expensive. A $1 CD-R can store 650 MB, a $10 Zip can hold almost 100
MB, but the $37 Stick has a capacity of only 8 MB.
However, there are other markets, such as digital cameras, where the
media cost of Memory Sticks will be very attractive. And, as more of us
have digital cameras along with computers, the use of Memory Sticks
could be a real plus.
Sony's hope is to make Memory Stick a universal standard for digital
equipment: cameras, computers, game systems, digital audio gear, etc.
If Sony is as successful as they hope to be, the Memory Stick will be
ubiquitous - and media costs should drop as the market grows and
technology advances.
The Memory Stick has the potential to change the way we move data
between various types of digital equipment.
Further reading