Low End Mac

 | 

Mac Scope

Will Apple Stock Tank Again?

Stephen Van Esch - 2000.10.02

2000: In light of Apple’s recent stock surge,* I am seriously considering investing in Apple stock. It has made substantial (to put it mildly) gains in the last year and seems poised to go even further.

Mac Scope

Apple’s stock, according to some, is “undervalued” and is making its way back into the Wall Street’s good books.

So I’m left wondering: Is this a good time to buy? Will Apple stock shoot ever higher with the release of the consumer version of OS X, the P1 [iBook’s code name] and maybe, just maybe, a revised iMac? Am I willing to make the bet?

My worst fear is that the market, like a fair weather friend, will abandon Apple at the drop of a hat. They are all too willing to leave market darlings out to dry if they perform exceedingly well but not up to expectations. Compaq and Intel are fine examples.

Where does this leave Apple? After an extraordinarily rough ride, I suspect that investors will quite willingly pummel Apple stock at the first sign of weakness. If Apple fails to exceed expectations even once, the financial pundits will start speculating about Apple’s downfall all over again.

“In light of Apple’s recent weak quarter, what’s your recommendation John?”

“Well, Apple has had a good run these last few quarters but we are now seeing if they can hold the momentum. This current quarterly result may be the first indication that they can’t.”

Heck, that scenario could play itself out even if Apple met outrageous expectations.

There’s no doubt that no matter how well Apple performs, it has a long way to go to regain any sort of long-term commitment from skittish investors. Can investors shrug off a bad quarter at Apple as “a bump in the road” or will they head for the hills?

I don’t think that the current Apple stock love-in is anything other than a one-night stand. I’m not convinced that investors will stick around to make breakfast.

* This article was originally published on osOpinion prior to the June 21, 1999 announcement of the iBook (code-named P1, as noted above), which makes it over 15 months old. It is reproduced by permission of the author.

Further Reading