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What if you built a wonderful new product that tech pundits were
raving about - but only made it available to 5% of its potential
market?
That's what Apple did when it released the iPod in 2001. It was
a Mac-only device that required FireWire. Later versions of the
iPod supported Windows PCs, but they still required FireWire, which
few PCs have.
It wasn't until Apple released an iPod with USB 2.0 support - a
port found on virtually any PC running Windows XP - that iPod sales
took off. Apple totally dominates the MP3 player market, and the
iTunes Store absolutely dominates online media sales.
What if you built a wonderful new product that tech pundits were
raving about - but only made it available to 30% of its potential
market?
That's what Apple has done with the iPhone, which will be
exclusive to AT&T (formerly Cingular) customers for its first
two years on the market.
Yes, AT&T is the largest wireless company in the US, but
barely. According to
Red Herring, Cingular had 58 million subscribers when the
iPhone was announced, Verizon 57 million, and Sprint Nextel 53
million. (Followed by T-Mobile and Alltel.)
'We Don't Care - We Don't Have To'
Far more than the US$499-599 price of the iPhone (which probably
already includes a discount for a two-year service plan), this will
be a serious barrier to Apple's success. Apple is telling 70% of
mobile phone users that they have to switch carriers if they want
to use the iPhone - and AT&T is generally regarded as having
the poorest customer service among the "Big 3" wireless
carriers.
We handle eighty-four billion calls a year.
Serving everyone from presidents and kings to the scum of the
earth. We realize that every so often you can't get an operator,
for no apparent reason your phone goes out of order, or perhaps you
get charged for a call you didn't make.
We don't care.
Watch this... [she hits buttons maniacally]
...just lost Peoria.
You see, this phone system consists of a
multibillion-dollar matrix of space age technology that is so
sophisticated, even we can't handle it. But that's your problem,
isn't it? Next time you complain about your phone service, why
don't you try using two Dixie cups with a string?
We don't care. We don't have to. We're the Phone
Company.
And that's the company Apple has partnered with. Exclusively.
For two years.
That puts a lot of wireless users between a rock and a hard
place. For instance, I've been with Alltel for years. I'm pleased
with their service, rates, and coverage. And I just added a line
and extended my contract for another two years. No iPhone for me -
unless I want to get a new phone number and switch to another
carrier.
AT&T Costs More
I don't want to give up My Circle, which
lets me call 10 non-Alltel phone numbers without using plan
minutes, and which doesn't take away my free mobile-to-mobile
minutes to other Alltel users.
Like a lot of mobile users, I'd seriously consider buying an
iPhone if I could use it with my current carrier. I'm in no
position to switch until January 2009, and I'm not interested in
obtaining AT&T service just so I can use the iPhone.
Besides, AT&T's Family Plan costs more. With Alltel, I'm
paying $59.99 per month for 900 minutes plus $9.99 per additional
line. With AT&T, $69.99 would get me 700 minutes and two lines
(plus $9.99 per additional line). To have the same number of
minutes I currently have, I'd have to choose AT&T's 1,400
minute plan at an additional $20. (If I wanted 1,400 minutes, it
would cost the same on Alltel and AT&T. Everyone but T-Mobile
seems to offer a 1,350 or 1,400 minute 2-line family plan at the
same price.)
And I'd be losing My Circle, which means the minutes would add
up much more quickly. Thanks to My Circle, Alltel gives me all the
coverage I need at the best price - I don't want to switch.
Closed Systems
That Mac has lost out on market share in part because it's a
closed system. Except for a brief period (the clone era, 1996-98), Apple has
been the exclusive provider of Mac OS computers. Some companies
refuse to buy single-vendor solutions, which has helped the Windows
juggernaut become even larger.
The iPod is part of a closed system. While the iTunes Store and
the iPod work with both Windows XP and Macs, only Apple makes iPods
and only Apple sells rights-restricted content for the iPod. (The
situation is even worse for Microsoft's Zune, which doesn't support
Macs at all.)
Wireless companies create their own closed systems with branded
phones. While the phone may be built by Motorola, people see the
rebranding and tell everyone that they have a Cingular, Nextel,
T-Mobile, or whatever brand of phone.
In a way, they do, because these rebranded phones are customized
to Verizon's specifications - or those of any other wireless
carrier. They may disable features. And they often "lock" the
phones so you can't readily use them if you switch carriers.
That's one of my pet peeves. Why should my girlfriend have to
give up a phone she knows and loves just because she's switched
from T-Mobile to Alltel? Why do the wireless companies feel they
have to lock up our phones (we paid for them!) to make switching
more costly and more difficult?
I wish Congress would pass a law about cell phone "portability",
just as they once did for phone numbers. It's economically and
environmentally irresponsible to force people to take perfectly
good phones out of service simply because they change carriers.
How Closed Is the iPhone?
Apple's iPhone is a very closed system. It's not based on
any Intel CPU, and probably not PowerPC either. Rumor has it
there's an ARM
CPU inside the iPhone. Apple used an ARM610 to power Apple's Newton PDA,
which was released 12 years ago. The ARM architecture has grown
since then, and Xscale CPUs (commonly found in PDAs) are an
outgrowth of the ARM architecture.
The iPhone runs OS X - but not Mac OS X. It's a version
of OS X compiled for whatever CPU is inside the iPhone. And it
undoubtedly lacks a lot of features that aren't necessary or
important on a phone/PDA/MP3 player.
With the iPhone, Apple controls the vertical and the horizontal.
They determine what carriers it will work with. They decide who
will be allowed to develop software for it. They choose which
channels will offer it for sale. And they control whether it can be
used with any other wireless carrier.
Sure, someone is bound to figure out how to install Linux on the
iPhone - they seem to find ways to put Linux on just about anything
with a CPU, including the iPod. But for the most part, we're going
to be stuck with the iPhone as Apple creates it and whatever
third-party software they authorize for it.
I don't like the idea of being locked in with a closed system on
principle, although in reality I've been very happy with my Macs
(and a couple SuperMac clones), my iPods, and my our-service-only
cell phones. Closed systems can and do work just fine, but they do
limit our options.
With the Intel transition, Apple learned that Mac users prefer a
more open system. Given a computer with the potential to run
Windows, hackers found ways to run Microsoft's operating system on
Apple's hardware (and also OS X for Intel on non-Apple
hardware) before Apple released Boot Camp.
Apple, we like our options. Please give us more options with the
iPhone!
How Successful Will It Be?
According to
EE Times, Apple has contracted with suppliers in Taiwan for 6
million iPhones, with a possible 3 million additional units if
needed. If Apple does sell 6 million iPhones the first year, that
alone will account for 10% of AT&T's wireless business.
And if Apple manages to sell 9 million iPhones, it will pass the
Macintosh division in terms of units sold. (Further, I fully expect
the next generation of iPods to be a lot like the iPhone - the same
screen and capabilities, but lacking phone features. And they'll
probably be timed to take advantage of the iPhone release
hype.)
I don't doubt that Apple will sell 6-9 million iPhones the first
year - and more in each succeeding year. And I'd guess that at
least half with switch to AT&T from other carriers just so they
can use the iPhone.
The dam will break if/when Apple makes the iPhone available for
carriers other than AT&T, which will turn Apple's 30% solution
into a 100% solution.
Dan Knight has been using Macs since 1986,
sold Macs for several years, supported them for many more years, and
has been publishing Low End Mac since April 1997. If you find Dan's articles helpful, please consider making a donation to his tip jar.
Links for the Day
Mac of the Day: Power Mac 6100, introduced 1994.03.14. The entry-level first generation Power Mac had a 60 MHz PowerPC.
Apple's iPhone is a very closed system. It's not based on
any Intel CPU, and probably not PowerPC either. Rumor has it
there's an