A new industry report shows Apple is to saturate just under half of all 2 nanometer production capacity at TSMC. The report also has some notable insights on the industry now, and for the immediate future. The 2nm process at TSMC went into production as planned.
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When can we expect M5 chips?
We might not get an M5 MacBook Pro until next year, at least it looks this way for now. First noted elsewhere such as on MacRumors, an industry report suggests there won’t be a Fall MacBook Pro update this year, like we saw for the M4 and M3 models. Often, however, we see a new Mac release after the September iPhone events.
As recently as around March or April this year, Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman suggested the M5 MBP could arrive in Late 2025, whereas this forecast shifted in a Mid-July article by him, and now confirmed by this new latest reporting from Ming-Chi Quo and DigiTimes.
“The high-end M5 processors in the 2026 MacBooks will continue to use separate underfill and molding processes.” as said by Ming-Chi Kuo on mingchikuo.craft.me on this latest industry report. Reading into how it was said, there’s confidence in an Early 2026 launch as opposed to a Late 2025 launch as anticipated earlier this year.
Other rumors. however, suggest something similar with a twist: A potential Fall launch for the M5 iPad Pro, with the M5 MacBook Pros following in 2026. This would make sense, considering the iPads have started shipping with next-gen chips since the M4 iPad Pro. The M5 chips are slated to be made on the 3-nanometer process, skipping the 2nm that the A20 will use.
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The iPhone A20 chip
“In 2H26, the iPhone 18’s A20 processor packaging will shift from InFO to WMCM (Wafer-level Multi-Chip Module). WMCM uses MUF (Molding Underfill), which integrates underfill and molding processes, reducing material consumption and process steps to improve yield and efficiency.” as mentioned on the report by Ming-Chi Kuo.
- See: Next year’s iPhones could get bigger than usual upgrades with A20 chip – 9to5Mac
. - See also: Packaging Part 3, Skip to 0:28, “What is an Silicon Inperposer?” – Navid Asadi
As mentioned above, the A20 chip going into your future iPhone will have a different fabrication process than the M5 chip, to increase chip yields and take a leap forward.
To explain it better, here’s something Marcus Mendes brought up in an article on 9to5Mac: “WMCM allows different components, like the SoC and DRAM, to be integrated directly at the wafer level, before being diced into individual chips. It uses a technique that connects the dies without needing an interposer or substrate, which can bring both thermal and signal integrity benefits.”
This is a half-step into 3D chip technology, and a monumental leap forward in chip design. Although this type of technology was worked on and tested for over 30 years by IBM and At&t, it didn’t penetrate the market back then, according to Navid Asadi. Furthermore, he adds that today’s technology and demands make it possible, including a need of higher density of interconnections.
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Some other key highlights
- Production had just begun. Apple will remain TSMC’s main 2nm customer even as other players enter the market.
. - Subcontrant quotation reached a sky-high price of $30,000. (Per Wafer)
. - Other buyers of TSMC’s 2nm process: AMD, Qualcomm, Mediatek, Broadcom, and Intel.
. - Chip manufacturers are still competing to place orders for production capacity.
. - TSMC recently increased its annual US dollar revenue against the trend, from 25% to 30% from several factors: Strong demand for AI, high-efficiency computer chips, as well as a continued high demand of 3/4/5-nanometer chips.
. - TSMC’s customers were originally mainly large American factories. Proportion of American customers to increase from current 75% in the future.
. - TSMC predicts: in the future, 2nm U.S. chip fabs will account for 33% of TSMC’s total production capacity.
. - The 3 and 4 nanometer fabrication sizes will remain popular on an industry level.
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The M4 is already a phenomenal chip
Clocking in at 4.4 Ghz for the 3/4 performance cores and 2.85 GHz for the 4/6 efficiency cores (depending on if it’s an iPad or a Mac), the base M4 chip already packs 3750 MHz LPDDR5X-7500, and many other advancements since the M1. This chip’s GPU performance is not far behind an M1 Pro, but the Single Core performance is among those that hold the line in the industry.
I can only imagine what the performance of an M5 chip would be like. Down the road and into the future, I wonder how a Mac would perform using an Apple Silicon chip designed with Wafer-level Multi-Chip Modules. I wonder if this type of innovation means they’ll start shipping Macs (and then possibly more) with A-series chips as opposed to M-series chips.
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1.4 Nanometers in 2028
“The technology promises a 15 percent performance boost, plus a 30 percent reduction in power draw compared to 2nm processors set to go into production later in 2025“, said TSMC.
- See: TSMC shows off 1.4nm chip tech that will appear in future iPhones and other devices – Engadget – URL
. - See also: 1.4nm, early launch, TSMC is going all out. – European Central Station – URL
The company is already racing to do trial production runs on 1.4 nanometers by the end of 2027, with a full production run starting mid-2028. A new plant in Central Taiwan Science Park expected to start being constructed in October 2025, which is likely to make those 1.4 nm chips.
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My thoughts
As I always say: I can’t wait to see what the future of technology holds. I was watching the Navid Asadi video with some excitement, it felt like seeing an evolution in the way chips are made and designed. It’s more sensible to slow down and do a 1.5-year product cycle as opposed to a yearly product cycle, as it could create less confusion among people (including myself) and make some breathing room. It’ll make the new Macs feel new for longer, before the next model is out.
These are all fascinating developments in the world of technology, and it’s good to see there are strong positive market forces to uphold chip production and innovation.
