Power Inside, the Cell PC, and the Future of Mac OS X
Daniel Knight - 2005.04.04
IBM is
on a roll. Their POWER architecture runs IBM's powerful servers and
has been adapted to form the basis of the Mac's PowerPC processors.
The new Cell processor - jointly developed by Sony, IBM, and
Toshiba - will be at the heart of the Playstation 3.
The times they are a changin'.
Microsoft Windows and Intel processors currently dominate the
personal computer industry. Linux is a distant second on desktop
hardware with far less than one-tenth as many users as Windows, and
AMD's family of processors holds a record
16.6% of new PC sales with Intel accounting for almost
everything else.
Intel and AMD are competing in the same hardware space, just as
Windows and Linux are competing in the same software space. Apple
is the odd man out - they make their own hardware and operating
system. Macs don't run x86 CPUs or Microsoft operating systems.
Intel x86
Intel's x86 architecture, which traces its roots to the Intel 8080 CPU of
1974, absolutely dominates the desktop, laptop, and server markets
with well over 90% of the market - but I believe in a PowerPC
future.
The x86 architecture has become incredibly powerful and complex,
and that complexity may be part of the reason Intel has been unable
to build a 4 GHz Pentium-class CPU. Intel has tweaked their
design to get more and more performance out of 3.x GHz processors,
but speed increases have been slow in coming in recent years.
Intel's CPUs are also power hogs, and that's why Palms and
Pocket PCs don't use x86 processors. The Xscale processors found in
most Pocket PCs comes from Intel, but it uses ARM architecture,
which is optimized for low power consumption and long battery
life.
Power Inside
Even Microsoft seems to realize that x86 is running out of
steam. Their next generation Xbox won't be based on Intel
components - it will run a customized IBM Power processor.
Nintendo's Game Cube already uses an IBM PowerPC processor, and
Sony will be adopting the Cell processor (a Sony/IBM/Toshiba
project that's also part of the PowerPC family) in the
Playstation 3.
Imagine that - the top three gaming systems will all be using
the IBM Power architecture next year. And last week IBM announced
an initiative to promote
the Cell architecture beyond gaming.
It's easy to imagine places where the Cell might be an ideal
solution. TiVo and other digital video recorders don't need huge
amounts of processing power, but they do need good video
processing. The Cell could be a perfect fit.
The Cell might be a good choice for networked storage devices,
since it draws little power and manages multiple tasks
simultaneously.
Another place the Cell processor might appear is the "smart"
terminal market, which is currently dominated by Wintel PCs. A
smart terminal needs to have enough memory and power to do simple
tasks - log into a central server in a retail store or display Web
pages and email in a library.
IBM has set their sights a bit higher than that, though. They
want to become a crucial player in the high-end imaging market,
which includes aerospace, defense, industry, and medicine.
As many observers have commented, the Cell is cousin to the
PowerPC processors found in Macs since 1994, and it should be
feasible to build a whole new personal computer architecture around
the Cell processor.
OS X Everywhere
A new architecture needs an operating system. IBM has been
supporting Linux develpment heavily for years, and it's one option,
although it falls far behind Windows and the Mac OS when it comes
to user friendliness. (This is the one area Linux geeks need to
address if they ever want to compete in the broader consumer
market.)
Microsoft hasn't made Windows for PowerPC since the Windows NT
era, and that was a fiasco, so they may be wary of developing
Windows for a different hardware platform. That would divide their
focus and confuse the market. It could also cut into Microsoft's
bread and butter sales to companies backing the x86 architecture if
the Cell really takes off.
The third alternative is Mac OS X, which already runs on the
PowerPC family of processors, has the stability of Unix and Linux,
has the user friendliness of Windows, and has no known viruses or
other types of malware.
Is Apple a Hardware Company?
The last time Apple tried to expand the Mac OS base by licensing
clones, it nearly destroyed the company. Instead of seeing Maclones
marketed to new computer buyers, they were mostly sold as new
computers to current Mac users. And they almost always offered more
power for less money than Apple. Apple hardware sales took a
beating, and license fees weren't enough to offset those
losses.
Apple's attempt to redefine themselves as an operating system
company failed, and since then the company has been seen primarily
as a hardware company. Without the Macintosh hardware sales, there
is nobody to sell OS X to.
But the software company vs. harware company comparison is
rooted in the Wintel market, where almost every computer runs
Windows and has Intel inside. Apple hardware and the Mac OS
provides a unified platform - but it doesn't have to remain that
way.
Let's say companies such as Dell, HP, Gateway, and the like are
tired of Microsoft's hardball tactics and Intel's anti-AMD
policies. They want to make money selling computers, don't have the
resources to create an operating system, and want something that
would differentiate them from the zillion brands of Wintel PCs
currently on the market.
Now imagine that Apple and IBM come together to design a
hardware reference platform that anyone can license at a reasonable
price, one based on the Cell processor. The computer could ship
with Linux, which costs the computer makers nothing.
Apple could work with manufacturers to either license OS X
for factory installation or include a coupon with every new Cell PC
offering a special price on Mac OS X and the iLife suite.
It's not the same thing as cloning. The Cell PCs are perfectly
usable with Linux, manufacturers are no longer beholden to Intel
and Microsoft, buyers save money, and OS X becomes the option
of choice for those who want something easier and friendlier than
Linux.
We all win, although sales of Apple hardware might decline. Or
maybe not. With the Mac mini,
Apple showed they can produce innovative, marketable computers with
lucrative pricing.
The new platform would compete with Macs, but it would also
create a visible alternative to Wintel, creating a platform that
could slowly eat away at the near monopoly power of Microsoft and
Intel.
If IBM and Apple pursue this option, the personal computer
market could be a very different place five years from now with
Power Inside.
