Mac Musings

Where Are the New Macs?

4 February 2000 - Daniel Knight

Everyone was predicting new hardware at Macworld Expo. The next generation PowerBook G3, Pismo, was a sure thing. Thinner and lighter than the current model, it was expected to be available in a 500 MHz version.

Everyone agrees the iBook needs more memory and would benefit from a bigger hard drive. With or without a speed bump, the iBook is past due for a memory upgrade at the very least.

The current iMacs have been out since October 5. Based on past performance, Apple usually updates the iMac every 3-4 months, so an improved iMac (let alone the rumored 17" model) was a remote possibility.

Finally, Apple announced the Power Mac G4/500 on August 31, 1999 and eventually chose a release date of January 2000. Well, January has come and gone with no sign of the G4/500.

Despite all the hoopla over OS X at Macworld San Francisco, Apple remains primarily a hardware company. They make their money selling computers first, followed by selling OS upgrades for those computers.

So where is the new hardware?

Pismo

The PowerBook and rumor sites have a lot of different theories here. In the end, it looks like Pismo is ready to roll but some issues with OS 9.0.1 need to be resolved first.

The current PowerBook G3 (Lombard) has been on the market since May - that's nearly nine months. It's a fine machine, but sales have been lackluster, tales of trouble have been common, and 400 MHz doesn't have the sizzle it did last Spring.

I expect the next PowerBook will be available no later than April 1, 2000 (not only April Fools Day, but the anniversary of Apple's incorporation).

The iBook

Despite inadequate memory, the iBook is the best selling laptop computer on the market. If Apple could build them faster, it could probably sell them even faster. But the iBook only comes with 32 MB of memory; users should immediately upgrade to at least 64 MB to eliminate the performance penalty of virtual memory.

The 3.2 GB hard drive is pitifully small by today's standards, although that doesn't mean it's not enough for the intended market. Still, savvy consumers compare statistics, and the small drive and low MHz rating compared with Wintel laptops don't work to the iBook's advantage.

At this point, memory still remains fairly expensive, but Apple needs to get a 64 MB iBook on the market. Dropping in a larger hard drive, increasing CPU speed, offering a DVD drive, and a less conspicuous color scheme would all be nice - but they take a back seat to the memory issue.

The iBook is overdue for this, but I'm sure Apple won't make any changes until it can do so without increasing the iBook's price.

The iMac

The iMac has a decent amount of memory, a good sized hard drive, and adequate speed. But compared with entry-level Wintel machines, even 400 MHz sounds slow. Apple has already shipped 500 MHz G3 machines, and IBM is apparently producing 600 and 650 MHz chips.

Noting Apple's penchant for upgrading the iMac only one or two speed bumps at a time (one speed bump = 50% of motherboard speed, or 50 MHz on the new iMac), a 450 or 500 MHz iMac DV in the March-May timeframe would not be out of the question, with another speed bump at Macworld Expo in August.

Expect the Blueberry iMac to continue trailing the DV by 50 MHz, and prices to remain constant.

The iMac/17

This rumor is nearly as old as the iMac. It would be a nice machine, but large (especially compared to the newer, more compact iMac design). If Apple produces an all-in-one model with a 17" monitor - and I certainly wouldn't put it past them - they may well think different and not name it iMac.

Considering how well Apple is doing with the iBook and iMac, I can't see them rushing in with this model.

The Power Mac G4/500

According to AppleInsider, Motorola has provided Apple with about 10,000 G4/500 CPUs. That's not enough to meet demand. Apple sold 1.3 million Power Macs in FY99, so 10,000 units is a drop in the bucket.

On the other hand, there are supply and demand issues. Perhaps Apple could make a limited production run of G4/500 machines at a premium price?

The above-noted AppleInsider article claims neither Motorola nor IBM is likely to have G4/500 chips in quantity until the next die revision, which means we could have to wait until June or so for the G4/500 as a readily available model.

Yield on slower G4 CPUs is much higher, so expect Apple to go the dual-processor route for those needing more horsepower. A twin CPU G4/450 could sell for about $1,000 more than the current G4/450 while offering nearly twice the performance in many CPU-intensive programs. (It's nice that Macs have had dual- and quad-processor support since the Daystar Genesis MP introduced in October 1995.)

And for those seeking a real speed thrill, let's keep our fingers crossed for Apple to create a quad-processor G4/450 system, although the price will undoubtedly be astronomical.

As for faster single G4 CPUs, don't expect anything faster than 500 MHz for several months - and even the 500s will be rare, assuming Apple even chooses to release them.

Conclusion

Apple the hardware company is doing very nicely. They sold 3.45 million computers in FY99 and 1.35 million during the Christmas quarter. Except for depressed PowerBook G3 sales, Apple is probably selling at near production capacity.

However, to retain a perceived competitiveness with the Wintel market and give current Mac users more reason to upgrade, Apple needs to improve the current lineup. Pismo should unleash a lot of pent-up PowerBook interest, more memory should give the iBook a stronger market position, a faster CPU will help the iMac handle digital video and DVDs more smoothly, and a multiprocessor Power Mac G4 can provide the power graphics professionals long for while avoiding the production problems with the G4/500.

It's all a matter of timing.