Back in 1996, Steve
Jobs declared, "The PC wars are over. Done. Microsoft won a long
time ago."
Given this statement, why was there was no surrender when Steve took
over at Apple? Apple continued making computers and developing a new
operating system. Apple Computers released the iPod, and developed the
iTunes Store. They branched out into their own retail business.
They dropped the word computer from their name and release a
phone.
If the PC war ended, why hadn't Jobs shut the doors and given the
money back to investors, like Michael Dell suggested. What new war is
being contested?
The Vista Legacy
All of this came into focus for me while reading about Steven
Sinofsky, Microsoft's "Windows Chief", talk about Windows
7. He basically pledged that Windows 7 would be an extension of
work started with Vista. There would be driver compatibility, and
things would continue to work the same, but with "new features" added
to make it a "major revision".
As I sat at my computer thinking about the wonderful success that
Vista has been over XP, I asked myself what Vista features were going
to be its legacy. The legacy is not speed, security, compatibility with
existing hardware, or developer support. The PC world, for whatever
reason, looks on XP as the best of all these. They don't even like to
use Vista in their own comparisons to Leopard. Instead
they use XP to showcase how great PCs are.
The true legacy of Vista is digital right management (DRM) and
content control. Microsoft is brokering deals with the MPAA and the
RIAA and the media companies behind these organizations by using
promises of content control in Vista. This is how Microsoft is getting
music companies to sign up to Microsoft version of iTunes.
Amazon and others are pushing for no DRM on MP3s, but that isn't
Microsoft's game. They are willing to turn on the
broadcast flag, which isn't even required by the FCC, in their
effort to show the big media providers that they are in the game and
are a friend to the studios.
The old PC wars were about computer prices and software development.
Apple lost that war. They ended up killing their own clone program because
the clones were draining sales from Apple. Software development was
down, and Steve Jobs had to sign a deal with Bill Gate for continued
software support for Office and Internet Explorer on the Mac.
It's All About Content
The Internet and media have a lot in common. They are both sources
of useful content for computers that is not user generated.
Most old software was about letting users write, design, compile,
sort, or store data that they put together. The Internet allows people
to pull in documents, pictures, sound, and music from all over the
world and handle much more information than they could ever create
themselves. At first Microsoft, with its control of the Internet
through Internet Explorer, looked like it was going to be the champion.
Then Apple came in from a different angle with iPod/iTunes, and they
have essentially stolen the show from Microsoft.
Whether Jobs knew back in 1996 that the next battle would be not
over software or hardware, but over media and digital content, is not
clear. What we can see is that the company he has been creating has
built access to these sources little by little.
The iPod completely surprised everyone, both in popularity but
mostly that a "computer company" would go out on a limb to make regular
consumer electronics. Without it and the companion iTunes Store, Apple
wouldn't have developed its connections with the music industry. Later,
when digital video started to unfold, it was Jobs' personal connections
to Pixar and Disney that helped bring the movie and TV studios to
iTunes.
Each of these steps captured territory that could easily have gone
to Microsoft. Windows was and still is the dominant operating system,
and it holds monopoly power over the PC world. Microsoft clearly didn't
see the threat that a revitalized Apple, with Jobs at the helm, was
going to be.
Playing Catch Up
Microsoft is now the company playing catch up. It released its
version of an MP3 player, the Zune, to compete with the iPod.
After 18 months on the market, it has climbed its way to 4% of the
market by taking market share from Creative, not Apple.
In the smart phone market, where Microsoft has had its Windows
Mobile phones for years, Apple came out with the iPhone and
smashed Microsoft's sales numbers in less than a year. Once again
Apple made Microsoft look backward and behind the times.
We can see that Microsoft is becoming desperate for success. Gates
and Balmer are already talking up the next big
thing - because every other big thing they launched is tanking.
They talked so much that poor Sinofsky had to come out and set the
record straight about the real release date for Windows 7 (2010, not
2009). He has to carry on the legacy of Vista, and so far he doesn't
sound interested in making the false promises of his predecessor or
bosses.
The old PC war may be lost and over, but this new war is starting to
heat up. There are more players this time. We've got the computer
industry and the media, sure, but there are also Google, Amazon,
Napster, and Walmart on the sidelines. Apple has maneuvered for a
strong position, but the fortunes in any war are ever changing. Who
knows what alliances will be formed and which truces will be broken as
this battle moves forward.
Will consumers end up as the winners or losers? This is the big
question. Copy protection is fine as long as it doesn't make criminals
out of regular citizens. It is my hope that these companies can find a
fair and reasonable position that will work for us all.
