If you read my trials and tribulations
of bringing Windows 7 to my MacBook, you know that I am planning to
have a Windows 7 launch party. To prepare for this, I am using
Win 7 as much as possible. I am digging into new features and
trying out everything so I can answer questions for my party guests as
best as possible.
Separately, I am keeping a mental check list of things and how they
compare to Mac OS X. The tally is still in Apple's favor. Apple
has Exposé, Quick Look, better search, universal keystroke
shortcuts, a more mature UI, better virtualization, etc.
On the other hand, Microsoft has had its copy machines running
during development of Win 7. "Pinning" an item to the Task Bar is
technically different than adding something to the OS X Dock, but
it's obvious who is imitating who. Imitation is one way that Microsoft
is working to close the gap between the two operating systems.
Microsoft has definitely upped its game with Win 7. As a person
who uses Windows XP all day at work, I can see that if you could
upgrade your PC to use Win 7 for around $100, it would be worth
it. I've certainly done as much to keep my Macs up to date.
A Slow, Tedious Upgrade
The problem is that Microsoft doesn't make the upgrade easy. You can
either
spend 20 hours to upgrade or do to a clean install, which requires
you to back everything up and reinstall all your programs. This is not
what I would call consumer friendly. It doesn't sound like Microsoft is
really trying hard to get people to upgrade their old computers.
Now that Win 7 is ready to be released, the pundits are
fiercely claiming that either this will help promote
more Mac purchases or, conversely, bring
Apple to it's knees and drop Mac market share.
Neither suggestion makes much sense.
Apple has continued to
grow Mac sales while not selling the cheap netbooks that everyone
claimed it should. Windows 7 isn't any more threatening than a $300
netbook to Apple's business model; neither does Win 7 suck so much
that users will abandon it in favor of a Mac.
Bait for Windows XP Users
Windows 7 is not a Mac killer - it is bait for Win XP users. Maybe
there is a little emphasis on keeping people from switching to Mac, but
that is not the most important thing. Seriously, the number of Win XP
users (currently
estimated at 71.5% of all online computer users worldwide, about
four times as many as Windows Vista) is significantly higher than the
number of Mac users (5.12%).
This is the battleground for the whole PC market: Getting those XP
users to buy your brand of computer and operating system.
The slightly more serious threat to Apple is how Dell and HP are
imitating the MacBook Pro, which make tons of money for Apple, with
high-end Windows laptops. A fancy Dell Adamo or HP Envy with Windows
7, could theoretically be a combination that Apple has to watch out
for.
The reality is that PC mentality will get in the way. Why pay more
for an HP Envy when you can get the same specs or better from a $500
laptop? Microsoft's own arguments against Apple (as seen in Microsoft's Laptop Hunter ads)
can block traction in the higher price range.
Expect Success for Both Platforms
Expect Windows 7 sales to jump: Vista is going to be forgotten soon.
Apple will still do fine with Mac sales.
Expect to see Apple start leveraging Mac OS X 10.6 "Snow Leopard" to
increase the differences between the two operating systems. There is a
lot of technology packed into Snow Leopard that is not being used.
Everything we see today is just the eye-candy on the surface. When
both companies and third-party programmers start taking advantage of
the GPU to accelerate performance (called OpenCL on Macs), we'll
finally get a glimpse of how the two compare.
This fight is far from over.
