The launch of the Apple iPad, and the
surrounding hype and simultaneous debunking of its supernatural
abilities, has been hard to ignore. Initially perceived as another
device that will revolutionize the world, it has already been
second-guessed and panned by many people as too little for too much -
and as of this writing, it hasn't even shipped yet!
Every
week several of my consulting clients ask me what I think of the
device, and whether I think it will be successful. Now that's good
brand management!
Short answer: Yes, I think it will be successful, and it will find
several strong market areas. However this success will be evolutionary,
just as the iPod's was.
The first generation iPad actually does more than I expected for the
price, which is notable for an Apple product. But I think what's more
significant is what the iPad represents in the history and spectrum of
computing technology.
The iPad launch got me thinking about an old paper I'd once read
about "Tabs, Pads, and Boards" and how small portable computers with
different form factors were the direction technology was taking. Upon
further review, it's amazing how well this model has held up over time.
The paper was written - where else - at the famous Xerox PARC research
facility, birthplace of the GUI, the mouse, and much of modern
computing.
Xerox PARC Model - Tabs, Pads,
and Boards
In 1991 Mark Weiser of Xerox PARC wrote an article for Scientific
American magazine entitled The Computer
for the 21st Century, describing an envisioned concept called
Ubiquitous Computing:
"Ubiquitous computing names the third wave in
computing, just now beginning. First were mainframes, each shared by
lots of people. Now we are in the personal computing era, person and
machine staring uneasily at each other across the desktop. Next comes
ubiquitous computing, or the age of calm technology, when technology
recedes into the background of our lives."
More specifically:
"Ubiquitous computers will also come in different
sizes, each suited to a particular task. My colleagues and I have built
what we call tabs, pads and boards: inch-scale machines that
approximate active Post-It notes, foot-scale ones that behave something
like a sheet of paper (or a book or a magazine), and yard-scale
displays that are the equivalent of a blackboard or bulletin
board."
This concept of small, portable computing devices resonated with me,
and I filed the information away for future reference. At the time
Apple was transitioning from 680x0 to PowerPC Macs and dial-up modems
reigned supreme. But in the ensuing two decades, technology marched on,
and this vision has begun to take shape in reality.
PARC Prototype Tab
Tabs
In the article, Weiser wrote:
"Tabs are the smallest components of embodied
virtuality. Because they are interconnected, tabs will expand on the
usefulness of existing inch-scale computers such as the pocket
calculator and the pocket organizer. Tabs will also take on functions
that no computer performs today. For example . . . badges can
identify themselves to receivers placed throughout a building, thus
making it possible to keep track of the people or objects to which they
are attached."
The Tab has evolved via
the convergence of the PDA, the cell phone, the RFID badge, and other
discreet devices into today's small handheld computers - more commonly
called smartphones. The smartphone is personal, portable, stores data,
interacts with "the cloud", reports on locations, etc. The Treo,
Blackberry, and Windows Mobile devices all crossed this threshold
earlier in the decade, with the Apple iPhone (the Prodigal Son of Tabs)
then following with major user interface improvements and an
application development environment that have transformed the
industry.
The iPhone (and smartphones in general) are at an exciting point in
their development; we're past the initial "isn't this cool" stage and
are developing new unforeseen applications upon which we rely daily.
The Tab has arrived, and is in fact entrenched.
PARC Prototype Pad
Pads
Weiser continued:
"The next step up in size is the pad, something of a
cross between a sheet of paper and current laptop and palmtop computers
. . . Pads differ from conventional portable computers in one
crucial way. Whereas portable computers go everywhere with their
owners, the pad that must be carried from place to place is a failure.
Pads are intended to be 'scrap computers' (analogous to scrap paper)
that can be grabbed and used anywhere; they have no individualized
identity or importance."
Pads, or their more common term, tablet computers, have been around
serving niche markets for over a decade but have struggled to find an
identity. Most have been pen-based devices (also envisioned by Xerox),
with touch screens becoming more popular as the technology has
improved. The price point has not made them "scrap computers", and many
are carried from place to place, but the concept of a more limited
shared network resource, instead of a portable personal computer, is
clear.
The Apple iPad marks the
clearest emergence yet of the Pad as a component of ubiquitous
computing - a cross between a full computer and a handheld smartphone,
with a user interface already familiar to users of both devices. Among
the hype and discussion about this new device I can already see several
areas where this could be a very useful form factor, for example:
- a multimedia, Internet-enabled textbook reader (no stack of books
to carry, complete your assignments online)
- a portal to online news and entertainment content, with a very
readable screen size (unlike smartphones)
- a medical imaging playback device, enabling doctors and medical
staff to access scans wherever needed
The Pad is not yet entrenched but may well soon be - over
50 devices in this form factor are planned for launch this
year!
Boards
Microsoft's Table concept computer.
The final device is wall sized:
"Yard-size displays (boards) serve a number of
purposes: in the home, video screens and bulletin boards; in the
office, bulletin boards, whiteboards or flip charts. A board might also
serve as an electronic bookcase from which one might download texts to
a pad or tab. For the time being, however, the ability to pull out a
book and place it comfortably on one's lap remains one of the many
attractions of paper."
Boards are just beginning to appear on the scene; the Microsoft
Table is probably the best current example. More limited versions of
this technology, such as sharing your screen on a wall display or
projector, or smart walls that can download data to other devices over
the network, already exist. Yet these are not fully collaborative
devices so much as large scale input and output peripherals for
computers.
That the Board has not evolved to the extent the Tab and the Pad
have is likely due to several reasons. One is technological, we're just
now reaching the point where smart network devices are practical and
affordable. But the other, I believe, is due more to a shift in how
we've chosen to use existing technology and the concept of "cloud
computing" itself.
Books - The Personal Computer
Survives
In the Xerox model, the desktop (personal) computer gets superseded
by Tabs, Pads, and Boards. There's no need to have lots of expensive
CPU power on your desk when the network can do it for you. However, in
practice the personal computer has not gone away.
Many of us still want full keyboards, screens, peripherals,
expansion slots, etc., and the associated flexibility and expansion
capability this enables. Also, the initial promise of cloud computing
as a complete substitute for local storage and processing has not fully
proven out, though this is steadily gaining in popularity (see below).
What has happened is that the form factor has changed, with
laptops or portable computer becoming more popular than desktop
computers in the past decade. Today many people carry laptops and
connect them in their homes or offices to a larger screen and keyboard
on their desks - a small Board on which to access their data.
The technology industry is often in a rush to redesign form factors
in order to create a new product to sell, but sometimes the tried and
true solution is better. A tactile physical keyboard is a better
writing tool than a touch screen, no matter how you jazz things up.
If the personal computer doesn't go away, we need to give it a place
in the Ubiquitous Computing model. In tribute to years of naming trends
- notebook, netbook, PowerBook, MacBook, etc. - I suggest we can call
the portable computer the Book in the spectrum of computing
devices: a pinnacle of self contained knowledge, portable, with easy
networking capability.
The Cloud & Collaborative
Computing
If the Board is viewed conceptually as a space for collaborative
computing, rather than a physical device, I think the PARC model still
holds true. The networking requirements were described in Weiser's
paper as a key component for Ubiquitous Computing to work.
"Prototype tabs, pads and boards are just the
beginning of ubiquitous computing. The real power of the concept comes
not from any one of these devices; it emerges from the interaction of
all of them. The hundreds of processors and displays are not a 'user
interface' like a mouse and windows, just a pleasant and effective
'place' to get things done."
At that time, however, there was no way to make everything talk to
each other:
"Present technologies would require a mobile device to
have three different network connections: tiny range wireless, long
range wireless, and very high speed wired. A single kind of network
connection that can somehow serve all three functions has yet to be
invented."
That network
exists today, through a combination of wired ethernet, WiFi, Bluetooth,
and digital cellular components bridged using the TCP/IP protocol. When
data is stored and shared online we describe this as being in the
Cloud and have the ability to access the data from multiple
locations simultaneously. We can collaborate with others on our work
through such "cloud computing".
The last several decades have seen various expressions of
collaborative workspaces: Lotus Notes, Microsoft Exchange, Google Docs,
various Content Management Systems, etc. We're already working
together, but remotely, rather than inside a shared physical space.
My thesis in a nutshell: Collaborative Computing, facilitated though
the use of the Cloud, and interfaced via Tabs, Pads, and Books, is the
ultimate expression of the Board as Ubiquitous Workspace. As Sun used
to say in it's ads, "the network is the computer".
Apple's Convergent Position
Apple is uniquely positioned to continue surfing this growing wave -
as it should be. The company has consistently built on the work done at
Xerox PARC since the launch of the Lisa, and many of PARC's engineers
have gone on to work for Apple. The iPhone, iPod touch, iPad,
Macintosh, and Apple TV all target different interfaces in the
ubiquitous computing continuum, but they share one important similarity
- they all run OS X.
The Macintosh clearly runs OS X, as Mac OS X. The iPhone, iPod
touch, and the iPad run the iPhone OS, which is just a visual variant
(GUI, or shell) on top of OS X for these devices. The core operating
system is the same. This is also true with Apple TV, which runs OS X at
heart and talks to the displays in your living room. Now we have a
common OS with multiple user interfaces, scalable to different devices
with differing resolutions, applied across a common network (the
Internet via your local LAN).
It's an interesting convergent position that Apple now finds itself
in - and one that's not coincidental. In this broad model, the iPad and
Apple TV begin to make sense as pieces of a computing spectrum, rather
than be-all products themselves. I'm excited for the ride to come!
