In the long run Mac OS X will be one of the most successful
computer products ever. Why? Because it combines the four holy grails
of computing:
- The ease of use of a Mac
- The power of Unix
- The NeXTstep Development tools
- A broad application base
I'm pretty sure this combination is going to be very tempting for a
lot of people. First, there are the old diehard Mac users who have been
waiting for a "modern" OS ever since Apple promised to build one in the
System 7.1 era. They will want to have it no matter what.
Later there will be those diehard Mac users that will be caught by
Apple's marketing efforts as soon as they start (probably somewhere in
the summer) pushing this thing in the media.
But Mac OS X will also tempt a new group of customers: Unix
geeks. These will come in droves, because they will finally be able to
get their hands on an OS that is both Unix and also able to run stuff
like Internet Explorer and MS Word. This is not a very large
group, but I suspect they have some influence in the enterprise IT
world.
There will also be lots of developers porting their stuff to Mac
OS X. According to Apple, 20,000 apps are being built for the new
Mac OS - that is more than are currently available for the old Mac
OS.
Besides current developers of importance (Adobe, Macromedia,
Microsoft, etc.), you'll see lots of other big name software companies
(Oracle, SAP, Computer Associates, etc.) port their stuff to OS X.
They will not only be tempted to do this because of the fact that
OS X is Unix-based or that you can develop using the new Macified
version of the NeXTstep Development Tools, but also because Apple will
be dominating the Unix world. Apple will be the single biggest supplier
of Unix-based computing on this planet.
Because of that latest group of developers, I'm pretty sure
OS X not only will be quite a success in the consumer market, but
more significantly in the server market. As soon as Apple gets those
quad and octo G4s out the door, they will almost instantly grab a large
part of the server business. It will be just too tempting to get your
hands on a Unix server that even an uneducated mortal can
administer.
Yeah, OS X rocks. Mark my words, in the coming year it will be
totally uncool to even point your finger at a Wintel or Linux box. Of
course, we old Mac users, will need to get used to OS X and
probably complain a bit about not being able to put docs all over the
hard disk and about the interface being a bit like system 6 on
steroids, but in the end we will rejoice the simplicity and the beauty
of it all.
And what will Microsoft think of all this? I don't think they are
really worried. They will continue to dominate the application market.
It's Linux users Microsoft is a lot more worried about, because that is
an entity they can't control and can't negotiate with.
With OS X, it is an entirely different matter. Bill Gates just has
to pick up the phone and call Steve Jobs. "Hey, buddy, what's cooking?"
"Just made myself another billion." "Me, too."
Share your perspective on the Mac by emailing with "My Turn" as your subject.
