For the past three years, I have been arguing with all comers
regarding Apple's future. Many positioned the Mac OS transition as the
first step to Apple running an OS license program. After all, this
would not be a new venture for Apple, having licensed several vendors
in the mid-90s - to mixed reviews.
My response has always been that licensing the OS transforms Apple
from a multibillion dollar company into a multi hundred million dollar
company. I went on to add that Apple would crumble under the weight of
cheap Intel boxes and Microsoft Office, eventually dwindling into
obscurity.
Then the winds changed, and the Apple world found itself changed in
the most significant ways. The bomb fell at WWDC. The move to Intel was
upon us.
My first reaction was that this was a response to the fact that
Apple could not foresee a way to get the top PowerPC chips into its
popular portables. My second thought, and the one I still stick by
today, is that Apple needed the Intel DRM offering to launch the Apple
Movie Store. This eliminates the major barriers to convincing the
studios that Apple can protect movie downloads from illegal use.
As I think more about the current situation and the move to Intel,
it becomes apparent that one of the goals (not the only one) of the
transition will be market share. Apple fans know that for all the
praise Apple has received over the last five years, lack of market
share has continued to be an issue. The debates over the importance (or
lack thereof) of Apple's market share are constant when you get an
Apple fan and a Wintel supporter in the same room.
In the end, Apple has decided that it needs to grow market
share.
Looking back over its work with iTunes, the iTunes Music Store, and
the iPod, it seems that Apple has been positioning this transition for
a number of years. Apple diehards are aware of Wintel-only iPod users
who are now more interested than ever to try Apple products.
Apple has been working to change the game from simply a hardware
discussion to an integrated system approach - the digital hub. This
focus has set them up nicely to make the shift to whatever processor
provides the best user experience. Apple fans consistently tout the
ability to be more productive running Apple products. This will not
change regardless of the processor - Mac users will simply open the box
and begin working as they always have.
If we follow the path to its logical end, we see a world where you
can spend a premium on Apple hardware running Mac OS X or you can
simply buy a copy of the OS to run on your white box Intel machine.
The benefit for Apple - they no longer have to carry the market,
spending huge numbers to innovate on each release. If users want a
tablet system running OS X, someone will license the software and
design a product.
The drawback - open competition with Microsoft, something that the
uneasy partners have not had since Apple lost the last war.
In Apple's favor, the next war will be fought over digital
entertainment, media, and content. This is a battleground where Apple
is much better equipped to win.
The initial casualty will most likely be Microsoft Office for Macs.
The good news for Apple fans is that we have been waiting for years for
a Mac developed alternative to the Office juggernaut. Picture a world
where you can buy an Apple Office suite for Macs and Linux.
As nervous as I am about this change and its effect on my bond with
Apple, it appears that Apple management has not made this decision
lightly. Looking back on the past five years, a road map has been
followed to position Apple for the next ten years. The prospect of
Apple's next generation seems bright.
I will keep an open mind and look for new offerings (movies, music,
and applications) and updated hardware.
In the end, it will still come in an Apple box and do the things I
need done. Maybe things are not too bad after all.
