A new
"transitional product" from Apple? What could it be?
The
guesses have been a new Mac Tablet or an overhaul of the MacBook
and MacBook Pro. for both of these guesses, I'm not impressed. Demand
for tablet computers hasn't shown to be very high for the Window's
version; I don't see a big drive for more. Overhaul of MacBooks may
happen to keep up with new versions of Intel chips, but that doesn't
support a "transitional product".
In the quarterly conference
call, Apple Cfo Peter Oppenheimer highlighted the company's
competitive pricing. Then there was discussion of expected growth to
market share. Apple expects a growth to the retail channels overseas,
because they will need more coverage to handle growth of Mac sales, not
just iPods and iPhones. That sounds like plans for serious product
growth.
for clues I think we have to look at Apple's current product lines.
What areas of the market hasn't Apple cornered with their unique brand
of cool looks and features?
Apple seems to have complete coverage of the mobile computing field.
They have the ultraportable market with the iPhone. The lightweight
laptop is pinned down with the MacBook Air. Between the MacBook and MacBook Pro, they
cover from consumer to professional.
Sure a Mac Tablet could be squeezed in, but the notebook range is
already full and selling well, 37% growth year over year. No obvious
holes there.
On the desktop, we find only three choices: The Mac mini is appliance computing at
its best. The iMac is a
wonderful compact design with a large monitor for the average user.
Then we have the top-end professional muscle of the Mac Pro. The Mac Pro is multiprocessor
power for heavy-duty video and design work. Desktop growth was
fantastic, 49% year over year, but this was largely attributed to iMac
sales
The only thing missing here is a low cost, high volume minitower for
the consumer who doesn't need professional performance.
Apple vs. Psystar
The minitower is also where Psystar tried to generate sales that
honestly weren't being satisfied by Apple. With Apple suing Psystar out
of existence and dropping hints of a "transitional product", what could
Apple be up to? Could it be thinking that it wants a clear field to
launch its new product?
The Mac mini is nice. I own one that I'd like to move to the living
room to connect to my HD TV.
With what should I replace it? The Mac mini has limitations because
it is built like a laptop with no monitor and a notebook hard drive.
That means small size at the expense of hard drive space and processor
speed. Another mini is not quite what I want for an upgrade.
I need a different product to transition beyond
the Mac mini.
Since I already have a monitor, I don't exactly need or want an
iMac. I need a different product to transition beyond the Mac mini. I
want an inexpensive desktop so I can get a nice performance boost
today, but I don't want to spend much money. Besides the Mac mini
design and performance hasn't gotten a lot of attention from Apple
lately - I wonder why?
Maybe Apple, like me, is ready to transition away from the Mac mini.
They need something to get sales really rocking in the desktop arena.
Maybe a 49% growth rate isn't good enough. Apple is now shooting for
the number 2 spot in computer sales, so look out HP and Dell.
Apple will need to target the consumer/business desktop market. To
me, a great "transitional product" would be a minitower designed by
Apple.
Impacting Gross Margins
A minitower would definitely impact gross margins. This was
mentioned in Apple's last quarterly report, so that makes sense. Apple
will have to be price competitive to fight for market share. I believe
Apple can do it. It will have only one product to support instead of a
dozen, like Dell or HP in this range.
During the conference call, Oppenheimer talked about how Apple is
now pricing computers to beat the competition. I've written about this
in the past: Mac Pro
Beats HP and Dell at Their Own Game: Price and MacBook Holds Its Own Against
Dell and HP Notebook Pricing.
The more of these computers they plan to sell, the bigger the hit to
margin - and they are forecasting a big hit in earnings per share.
Apple would take this loss in order to gain both market share and
really establish the Mac OS as a contender in the market. It is also
the right time to take away XP users before they switch to Vista.
The big question isn't what Apple is going to release, but what will
it look like? What surprise is Apple planning for us?
I get excited thinking how far Apple will push the design to
separate itself from the competition. Will it be small like the Mac
mini, cube shaped, or
some other form factor that makes you go Wow!
The funny thing is that even if Dell or HP knows that it is coming,
they can't do a thing to stop it. They haven't done very good at
beating Apple on design; I think this will be another smack against
their bottom line.
I'll be saving my pennies and keeping the Mac mini working hard
until it can be retired to the living room to enjoy an easy life.
