Today I plan to weave for you a complex tapestry of paranoid logic
so convoluted, so infused with power and incompetence, it will make the
folks over at As the Apple
Turns drop their newborn on the floor. It will make the Crazy Apple Rumor mongers write
haiku for a week. It will cause the MacOS Rumors site to talk about
actual user manuals (in print no less), and Think Secret will change its name to
Thought Public. Anne Onymus will
finally reveal her true identity just for the opportunity to kick me in
the head.
As Forrest Gump would say, "Hang on to your buttocks. This is gonna
be a wild ride."
The story is complex enough that I will number the stages to help
you keep track.
1) Just prior to the recent Macworld, the Mac Web was abuzz with the
effrontery of Apple Computer blacklisting certain non-rumor sites as
rumor sites and denying them passes as press.
2) Mainstream press at the David Coursey level was beginning to pick
up on the story. On a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 being on the evening
news of a major television network, this ranks at about a 6 or so. A
score of 8 makes it into the syndicated column of a print newspaper, so
this is getting close to the Real World that Apple Pays Attention To.
(As The Apple Turns rates about a 4 on this scale, and your friendly
neighborhood Lite Side resides at 2,with
occasional forays into 3 territory.)
3) Seeking to nip the accelerating bad press in the bud, Steve ("Mr.
Steve to you") Jobs decides to use a diversionary tactic. In a bold but
desperate gambit, he decides to refocus the building ire of Mac web
writers on a new topic: .mac.
4) Before any of us can cook up an article on how tacky the ".mac"
name is, given the existence of the vaporware ".Net," he ups the ante
by declaring ".mac" a pay service.
5) Poof! That's the last you hear about the blacklisting issue as
all laser targeting systems are now focused on the relative value, or
lack thereof, of ".mac."
6) Mission accomplished: The rumor site complaints dropped from
level 6 (and accelerating) to negative numbers - meaning, "If you think
you've got problems, little rumor site, just look at me, I spent my
last dime buying OS 9 because it had free web storage included."
Suddenly the entire blacklisting issue was less than not important -
people actively discouraged you from bringing it up, didn't they? Don't
deny it.
7) Then there's the whole timing thing. I mean, look at the
influence AtAT has on the Mac Web. Fans are going nuts trying to hire
baby-sitters, just so's these people can type. When better to put
faithful Macolytes through the meat grinder when their most popular
voice is semiconscious, smeared with sticky ground up peas in pear
sauce, and staggering over to 7-11 in search of exactly the right kind
of diapers?
8) Not to mention the attempts by Microsoft to upstage Apple just
prior to Macworld. Remember those? That whole issue lasted, what, about
30 hours or so? And what does Mr. Jobs (Steve) do to squelch these
rumors? He steals Microsoft's ideas right back! Why hasn't anyone said
anything about what a low-down cheap shot ".mac" is at the delayed,
derided, unsanitary ".Net?" Judging from the smoothness of the
transition, it looks like it took, what, 29 hours of work to set up
".mac." Are you following me here?
No?
This is all going to tie together, so trust me.
9) During Macworld, Apple's announcements of no-upgrade Jaguar
pricing and no-options ".mac" gouging were apparently supposed to be
counterbalanced by the various other announcements he made. But not
really. I mean, who even remembers what those other announcements were?
Some screen size bump, some new OS X features I'm supposed to be
happy to pay for.
Am I right here? Of course I am.
10) Now let's start to tie this together. Steve's a product of his
environment, and as we all know, he's into that
70s-liberal-anti-Republican-he's-met-Clinton-Northern-California school
of thought, whatever that is. (All I know is what I read on Fox News.) Integral to these exposures is
the concept of the Chinese Yin-Yang symbol. (Oh yeah, that's a really
clear connection. You just have to live anywhere but California to get
it, though.) You know, the one that says "All good must be accompanied
by evil," or else you wouldn't know what good is, see?
Now, I used to think Apple was Yin to Microsoft's Yang. That whole
worldview got messed up when his Steveness pronounced the war between
Microsoft and Apple over - and did that whole Giant Face of Bill irony
thing on a Macworld stage a few years back.
11) But I was wrong. Steve's ego is so large, he isn't Yinging to
Gate's Yanger (and you can quote me on that out of context if you
like). No, see, here's the thing - and if you're taking notes, you'll
want to put a great big box around this with little winky lights like
they used to use on the Rocky and Bullwinkle Show 'cuz it's important -
the thing is, Steve wants it all. He wants his Yin and Yang in
one circle (his) and Microsoft isn't even in the equation at all. Or
much.
12) This explains the alternating blasts of brilliance with the
black holes of despair we've seen put through the metaphor mixer
lately. Seems like he can't come up with a great product (flat panel
iMac) without crippling it somehow (no choice in port placement). The
creation and transition to OS X is a fantastic, incredible
achievement, counterbalanced by the lack of upgrade path for early
adopters.
The War with Microsoft is Over (see #10) but the Switch ads are a
slap in the face at the Wintel hegemony. The Switch ads are meeting a
long-standing demand of writers on the Mac Web (face the competition
squarely) but they do so using people who need a shot of caffeine or
something to wake up properly.
No positive thing Apple does can be viewed in isolation without its
corresponding negative aspect. This is the secret to Apple's recent
behavior; it's very simple. Steve is attempting to bring balance to the
Force . . . all by himself.
The obvious thing for us to do, Mac Fans and Smart-Aleck Pundits
alike, is to track the changes for him so when he gets too close to the
Dark Side or the Lite Side, he can do the appropriate thing to come
back. That's why I've decided to establish, following the example of
the Bulletin of
Atomic Scientists, the countdown until Apple meets its doom
clock sponsored by the Bulletin of Mac Web Pundits.
On this clock, 12:00 midnight is the date Apple declares bankruptcy
and the following occurs: The Apple logo is purchased by Sony and
turned into an off-brand MP3 player logo. Disney buys the rights to
OS X and uses it exclusively in Disney World kiosks. The remaining
iMac inventory is sold to Pixar. Everything else goes to Dell.
If you want to know how the clock should have been set from 1977 to
the present, read the excellent summary at http://www.apple-history.com. All
you really need to know is that the Clone Wars occurred from 1993-1997,
as Windows was establishing its Mac-like interface, Jobs was not with
the company, and Apple suffered a lack of focus, staggering losses, and
poor quality control in product development. During those years the
clock rarely moved from 1 minute before midnight. After the
introduction of the iMac, the clock has been oscillating around 10
minutes before midnight, which is kind of the point of this stupid
article.
We begin our analysis just prior to the recent Macworld New
York.
June 2002: Clock standing at 10 minutes before midnight. It
would be farther out, but an industrywide sales slump plus consumer
nervousness following Sept. 11 depresses sales.
July 2002: Rumors circulate that certain Mac Web sites will
be banned from MWNY for spreading rumors, a determination which is in
and of itself a rumor, ironically. Clock moves to 9 minutes, 45 seconds
to midnight. As the month wears on, the clock moves to 9 minutes 30
seconds, and in the days preceding the Expo, the motion accelerates
suddenly, all the way to 8 minutes before midnight a couple of days
before the keynote due to widening coverage of the fiasco.
July 2002: Microsoft makes several forgettable announcements
just prior to Macworld: clock moves to 6 minutes before midnight.
July 2002: Jobs steps on keynote stage: Reality Distortion
Field brings clock to 10 minutes before midnight.
July 2002: Jobs announces extra-wide iMac. Clock moves to 11
minutes before midnight.
July 2002: Jobs announces new features for Jaguar: Clock
moves to 11 minutes 30 seconds before midnight.
July 2002: Jobs announces Jaguar upgrade price and policy.
Clock drops to 9 minutes before midnight.
July 2002: Jobs announces .mac feature set. Clock rises to 10
minutes before midnight.
July 2002: Jobs announces .mac pricing and lack of options
for cash-strapped users: Clock drops to 7 minutes before midnight.
July 2002: Macworld ends with clock set at 7 minutes before
midnight. Steve is exhausted, but has more fish to fry later in the
summer...
July 2002: Rumors circulate that Apple and Sun may develop
Office-compatible suite for Mac OS X. Clock jumps to 11 minutes
before midnight.
A little later in July: Sun denies rumors and muddles the
water a bit: Clock flutters and settles on 8 minutes before
midnight.
August 2002: Apple announces $100 price cut on base iMac,
bringing price down to level it was before Apple raised the price in
first place: Clock moves to 8-1/2 minutes before midnight.
If 10 minutes before midnight is the sweet spot Steve has been
oscillating around ever since he killed the Newton, it seems we're
overdue for some good news. iWonder what it will be? Stay tuned to the
Lite Side. As events develop, we will adjust the Apple Clock of Doom
accordingly.
Disclosure notice: The author of this article does not own any Apple
stock. In fact, he doesn't own any stock. Moreover, not only does he
not have any formal connection with Apple Computer - he hasn't even
done a Marketsource gig in two years - it is highly unlikely that
anyone poised to climb the corporate latter at Apple HQ would be caught
reading anything in the Lite Side archive. Therefore, the SEC can take
a day off. Enjoy.
