I have a friend who lives across the street. Let's call him Steven.
Steven has his own business which has grown to include three stores. He
is married and has a daughter who is 13 and a son who is 10. He is what
I would call an average upper-middle class guy.
He is also in the market for a new computer and frequently asks me
what he should buy, when he should buy it, how much RAM, what size hard
drive, etc. I have, at the least, convinced him to buy a Macintosh.
I guess he looks at me as some sort of expert. Either that or a real
geek. I have a 333 MHz
iMac, a Titanium
PowerBook G4/500, and a Power
Computing 604e/225 MHz Power Tower Pro. All this is networked
together with AirPort, a cable modem, and a Linksys hub.
Geez, maybe I am a geek.
Anyway, Steven wants a new iMac or iBook, but he is paralyzed by
"upgrade fear." He is always telling me, "I just know as soon as I buy
this, it will be outdated," and "I always time these things really
bad."
That brings me to this revelation: I believe that in a lot of ways
the computer industry has brought about this slump themselves. Computer
sales have plummeted in the past year or so, and one major contributing
factor is that people are fed up with the constant feeling they just
got taken. The churn rate for "new and improved" in the computer
industry seems to be 6-8 months.
What's up with that? A computer is the single most expensive
appliance that is purchased in a household. They cost more than
refrigerators. More than stoves. More than dishwashers. More than a
washer & dryer set - but they are obsolete in eight months. At
least we are made to feel like they are.
Can you imagine if your refrigerator had to be replaced every eight
months? Very few families can afford to "keep up with the computer
industry," and I believe that most have decided they are not going try
anymore.
Advertising has convinced us that speed is all. You must have the
fastest: 600 MHz, 800 MHz, 1.5 , and now 2 GHz. As it is, most
families don't use 40% of the processor power from three years ago. I
am not talking about professional movie editors, designers, or early
adopters. I am talking about normal, everyday users.
Buyers are tired of always being behind. I believe it is time to
come to some sort of consensus about upgrading.
Here is what I propose: Release new models, processors, etc. every
12-18 months. That way, if I decide to wait to upgrade through one
cycle, I have gotten two or three good years out of the current system.
That's not bad. I have an old make that was in production for three
years before it was discontinued. Three years.
Also, by adopting the 1-1/2 year cycle, I don't feel like I've just
been ripped off by buying last months model. This also gives the
manufacturers time to make really significant improvements to the
hardware - not just changing a color or adding a FireWire port, but
something that really makes a difference.
Yea, I have heard from people that I have mentioned this to that
"that's just this industry, get used to it." I say that's bull. We have
been brainwashed into believing this eight month cycle is normal. It
can be changed, and I think manufacturers will have happier customers
and a less volatile market.
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