In my previous article, ARM Netbooks
Could Make OS X the Mobile OS to Rule Them All, I discussed the
advantages of an ARM-based netbook running OS X with a screen
resolution of 960 x 640 - four times that of the iPhone.
If we look on the iPhone, iPod touch, and proposed netbook as part
of a range of Apple pocket computers, there are some obvious gaps to
fill.
iPod/iPhone Domination
Look on iPods and iPhones as a range of handhelds, from the shuffle
to the iPhone, and you realise how difficult it would be for other
companies to break into mobile entertainment. Nearly every price point
is already covered. Add
iTunes, the major music store for the US and Western Europe, and
the 6-month-old App Store, with over 15,000 apps (according to Apple -
over 20,000 according to mobclix.com)
and 500 million downloads.
It looks as though only Nintendo's DSi will be a major competitor in
the near future, which is one of the reasons games plus lots of other
useful apps is a strong part of Apple's iPhone advertising.
Growing the Market
The major question is how to grow the market, especially in a
recession. When people feel poorer, they want to escape that feeling,
as it is a type of powerlessness. Being able to buy an inexpensive
"luxury" helps, especially if they know it is good value that they
would buy without thinking in normal times. So people need to be able
to buy Apple "luxuries" at a price they feel they can afford.
Both Steve Jobs and Tim Cook have said that Apple isn't interested
in making low-end phones (although Jobs has been known to change his
mind if the opportunity is large enough), so let's look at the iPod
type approach of giving more for the money at the same price points and
less for less. This suggests a next gen iPhone HD with a higher screen
resolution with 16 GB and 32 GB memory. At 720 x 480, that is 2.25x the
current screen resolution, it could run US (NTSC) and Japanese TV
programs. 600 x 400 would be a good alternative. Even with the same 163
ppi, it would only add 0.5" to the width and 0.7" to the length.
The current 3G iPhone would become the iPhone nano. This would let
Apple reduce the price of the current 8 GB iPhone so that carriers
could easily offer it at $99 with a two-year contract - and maybe even
$0 - letting more people, whose cellphone usage means they need a
contract, switch at minimal cost.
Similarly, the iPod touch HD could come in 32 GB and 16GB models
with the larger screen, and the price of the current 8 GB model
reduced.
Part of a Family
Choosing from this new iPhone, iPod touch, and ARM netbook range
would be straightforward.
- Do I need a "real" phone, or is Voice over IP (VoIP) fine?
- What size screen do I want?
- How much memory do I need?
The key is non-fragmentation. As
Joe Wilcox says, "Apple's platform will grow stronger and maintain
huge advantages over competitors as long as there continues to be one
iPhone OS version for all handsets from all carriers."
The same version of the OS will need to run on the iPhone/iPod touch
HD and the netbook, so that for users and developers it is a true
range. Having a lightweight USB keyboard available for the iPhone and
iPod touch would add to their uses and make the range with the ARM
netbook more seamless.
Specific Markets
Medicine
Having a more extended range of devices could also help Apple speed
the takeup of OS X in an area like medical, which currently has
about 1% of the apps in the App Store. Epocrates, for drug interaction
and adverse reactions, was part of the App Store launch, because it
gave doctors a reason to move on from their Blackberries and Palms. New
applications such as Surgery
checklists, which help reduce complications and deaths, would be
much more usable on a larger screen. And sometimes getting takeup of a
new system is as simple as having a prestige version, an iPhone HD, for
the consultants.
Education
This range will also strengthen Apple's leadership among students.
Many of them already have iPods but will look at lower cost netbooks or
the secondhand market when they need a computer. Apple is already
expanding iTunes U
(iTunes University) and persuading universities that it is a great
way to attract students and effective for helping them learn.
Apple also needs to make this range of devices the textbook reader
for the college market. When you are already carrying around a laptop
or netbook and an iPod, who wants Amazon's Kindle too? There are just
too many publishers for Apple to organise quickly in an iTunes Store,
so it will be far more effective to have Amazon and Google prepare the
books. Let them make the money from this part of the content.
The more Apple shows other large companies that it wants them too to
make a buck from the OS X mobile platform, the faster it will
grow, and the less other companies will feel they are dealing with
another Microsoft.
An iPod touch bundle with Apple's In-Ear Headphones and VoIP, such
as Truphone, to take full advantage of the campus WiFi would be icing
on the cake.
China
There are strong possibilities for the current iPhone and iPod touch
too. Expanding iPhone sales to more countries will help somewhat, but
probably not too much, as the world economy is suffering. Although
China is the largest country without a carrier agreement in place, many
interested users have bought unlocked iPhones through Hong Kong.
According to
iPhoneAsia, over 1 million iPhone owners are currently using China
Mobile's EDGE network. They could be valuable switchers for China
Unicom when its 3G service arrives in May, and therefore let Apple make
a good deal.
Competition
Sony
Sony's PlayStation Portable (PSP) is in real difficulties. Sony is
busy making versions of successful PS3 games to try to boost sales.
There is talk of the new PSP
2 being available in the fall, even though the PSP 3000 was
launched last fall, but developers are having problems finding
investment for PSP games because of the success of the App Store.
The iPhone platform already has more games and a much wider range of
apps, and the year's sales for the iPhone and iPod touch will
comfortably exceed the 15 million PSPs that Sony hopes to sell by the
end of March.
Introducing a new 4 GB model iPod touch at $169 and dropping the
price of the 8 GB to $199 could well finish off the PSP. Replacing
it as the second choice for games would likely add at least 10 million
units a year to iPod touch sales.
Is an iPod touch price drop the reason Apple has
bought up flash supplies, driving up prices in the spot market?
Nintendo
The Nintendo DSi will have problems too from a low cost iPod touch,
as the US April launch price is set for $169 (Amazon). If Nintendo
tries to maintain that price, it will be under pressure, after the
initial rush of enthusiastic buyers, to reduce DS game prices or start
losing market share. Therefore, a good short term focus for Apple is to
take over as much of the mobile games market as possible before
Nintendo sells enough to start reducing prices.
Microsoft
So there are some strong possibilities for growing the OS X mobile
market. Windows 7 isn't
scheduled to appear before 2010, but even if Microsoft manages to
ship early, many Windows netbooks will continue to use XP for as long
as possible because it's what users know - and it's cheap.
The extended iPhone, iPod touch, and ARM netbook range, with it's
touch interface, should quickly kill what's left of the tablet PC
market and have at least a year to finish off Microsoft's remaining
credibility with Windows Mobile.
However, if Apple doesn't seize the opportunity, the risk is that
RIM or Nokia or Ubuntu Linux could become much stronger.
