Netbooks are so fantastic that every PC vendor worth its salt - from
Asus to HP - is coming out with its own model. Best of all, many of
these are available with Linux as
the operating system. This is such a frightening prospect that
Microsoft agreed to have XP installed on these low budget machines to
keep Linux from getting too much traction in the market.
The question is, how well have the sales been going and have the
netbooks proved to be the wonderful mobile internet appliance they are
claimed to be. As luck would have it, we can dig through the Net Apps
data looking for clues.
iPhone on the Grow
for our comparison, we will start with iPhone data. The iPhone has
proven popular for browsing the Internet, and we know the exact sales
of iPhones thanks to Apple's reporting. In 2008 there were 13.7 million
iPhones sold. So how does the Net Apps data look for the iPhone. We can
clearly see the release of the iPhone 3G in July. The percentage of
iPhones on
Net Apps websites grew from 0.15% in Mar 2008 to 0.48% by Jan 2009.
That is a change of 0.33% - the iPhone's online share more than
tripled.
iPhone online share, March 2008 to January 2009 (range: 0.15% to
0.48%)
Linux Sputtering Upwards
If the netbooks were as successful as they have been made out to be,
we should see that same kind of change in the
usage of Linux. There was a small increase in the use of Linux from
0.61% to 0.83% (for a change of 0.22%), a whopping 30% growth. That is
certainly not the growth the iPhone had, but Linux did have a bigger
installed base to begin with.
Linux online share, March 2008 to January 2009 (range: 0.61% to
0.93%)
What is missing is a peak from holiday sales. What happened? Usage
was actually higher back in August 2008. Where are all the people
surfing the Web from their brand new Linux powered netbooks?
A little digging around the Internet, and we find out how many
netbooks were
sold in 2008, around 10 million.
Okay, so there were less netbook sold than iPhones, but it's still
large enough to show up on the chart. The next fact we find is that
only around
30% of netbooks are coming with Linux. That translates into a
measly three million Linux netbooks. That would be pretty good for
quarterly sales, but for the whole years it's no wonder there is no big
spike in Linux use.
Netbooks may be helping Linux, but they aren't making a significant
change.
Windows XP on the Decline
Windows XP online share, March 2008 to January 2009 (range: 73.6% to
63.8%)
What about the other 70% of netbooks? These should show up as
increase usage of XP. Unfortunately, XP is currently
on the downhill cycle. Usage of XP shrank from 73.59% to 63.76%, a
drop of 9.83%.
Vista
The sale of an extra seven million netbooks with XP has had no
impact on the decline of XP. Worse news for Microsoft is while Vista
accounts for some of the decline in Windows XP,
Vista only grew from 14.02% to 22.48%, a change of 8.46%. That is a
net loss of 1.37% between Windows XP and Vista.
Windows XP online share, March 2008 to January 2009 (range: 14.0% to
22.5%)
Windows in Overall Decline
All other versions of Windows (NT, 98, and ME) were on the decline.
The paltry seven million additional XP netbooks did nothing to reverse
the decline.
Windows overall online share (range: 91.6% to 88.3%) and Mac
overall
online share (range: 7.48% to 9.93%), March 2008 to January 2009
The one problem with Net Apps data is that it uses data from
measuring hits to specific websites. We can conclude either that
netbooks aren't having an impact on either XP or Linux usage or, more
controversially, that netbooks aren't all that good for surfing the
Web. I have to believe that it is a little of both.
When I surf the Web, I like a big screen, and I increase the size of
text on some websites to make them easier to read. Reading text on a
small screen would not be my preferred choice.
Surfing with the iPhone is a different issue. When I'm driving the
car, I ask my wife to look up directions. While at the store, I might
borrow her iPhone to check prices or look for product reviews. The
iPhone is all about convenience, and the screen is secondary. The
iPhone wins because we are more likely to have it with us when away
from home. At home, the desktop computer or laptop gets used.
While not conclusive, the Net Apps data does point to the iPhone as
being a better on-the-go Internet device than the netbook, a conclusion
we'll see more proof of as sales of both these devices increases and
changes in web traffic increasingly show the differences.
