Every new year brings a mixed bag for me. I'm sometimes nostalgic for
events of the past year, while other times I've been glad to see a
year pass. Always, though, I'm looking forward to what's before me
with hope and anticipation.
This year, as I turn my hopes to the prospects for 2006 in the
computer world (and especially in the Macintosh world), I find five
ideas that emerge as my great hopes for the coming year - brought
to you in Efficient Mac User style.
A Good "All in One" Device
I think it was Merlin Mann (of 43Folders.com) who suggested that
the electronic PDA was suffering because of the "two-gadget"
factor: People have a tolerance for carrying two electronic gadgets
with them, and the mobile phone will always be #1. The rest vie for
#2 - and the PDA held that place for years.
Lately, however, it's been usurped by the iPod.
PDA manufacturers are aware of the displacement, if not the
theoretical reason behind it, so they are adapting to accommodate:
Palm Treo phones have been around for a while, and nearly every
phone has some sort of built-in calendar/address book (many of
which will sync with your computer via USB or Bluetooth).
The Blackberry seems to have gained a prominent position as
perhaps the best implementation thus far.
What I want, though, is the thing that will let me have it all -
a single device that accomplishes the tasks that my mobile phone,
PDA, and iPod currently fill.
I know - the ROKR was introduced last fall, and it's an okay
start. But everything I read about it sounds like it's kind of
clunky, not very Apple-like. And it has such a limited capacity for
its iTunes functionality (100 tracks). It seems like this is a fair
attempt, at best.
I've heard that Motorola's new RAZR - the RAZRv3i
- has iTunes onboard as well. This may be just the thing I'm
looking for, but I can't tell: There's not a lot of detail on the
website. And it certainly won't have the stylus-able screen like a
Palm device.
How well will it function as a PDA replacement? And will it sync
with a Mac?
I'd love for Apple to come out with something really amazing -
simple and elegant like the iPod, sleek and sophisticated like
Motorola's RAZR, and big on features and function like the beloved
Newton.
Could it happen? I bet it can, and maybe we'll see it in
2006.
A Truly Seamless Transition from PPC to Intel
There has been much speculation about how Apple will fare in its
transition from the PowerPC processor to Intel. In spite of a lot
of nay-sayers' complaints, I think it stands to be a great
improvement for all Mac users. Faster processors, lower prices
(eventually), and a diverse selection of chips for special-purpose
functions.
But how long until it will be the improvement that it promises
to be?
As much as I love reading Guy Kawasaki's tales of evangelizing
the earliest Macs, I don't long for days like those again. It seems
like Apple's transitions have historically presented a similar
problem. For example, how long was it before there was a worthwhile
amount of native third-party software after the introduction of
OS X?
It looks as though Apple has learned how to do this sort of
transition well, and a lot of developers are far along in the
process of making their code "universal" for both PPC and Intel. I
hope this is so!
Wouldn't it be great for this change to happen as uneventfully
as possible?
A Racing "Leopard"
OS X has been ahead of the game, in comparison to WinXP, since
Panther (OS X 10.3) - and maybe even since Jaguar (10.2). With
Apple's release of Tiger (10.4) in 2005, the computing world seems
to have woken up to this reality - all the features that Microsoft
has been touting for Longhorn Vista are either copies of
long-existing aspects of OS X or were revealed in Tiger.
Microsoft has promised Vista's release by "late 2006", which
means either a) it will actually be available in mid-2007, b) they
will drop some of the more difficult (and sought-after) features to
meet the target release date, or c) "Vista" will actually be the
biggest, most expensive beta-release ever, preparing the way for
it's fixed successor. (Doubt this last scenario? Don't forget that
this is exactly what many claimed about Windows 95 and Windows
98.)
So here's my hope: OS X 10.5 (Leopard), will be released before
Vista (and maybe at the January '06 Macworld, if the Macintel
rumors are accurate), and all that has been mentioned about it is
its Intel compatibility.
I hope for something more than just a "platform-change OS";
Leopard could be the biggest nail yet in the coffin of the
Microsoft monopoly. If Leopard races ahead of Vista before Vista is
even released, perhaps the computing world will decide even more
that innovation is more important than standardization.
This scenario could boost Apple's market-share more than even
the iPod "halo".
Truly Useful (and Useable) Media Innovation
I'm ready for a true living room ready, easy-to-use Media PC.
And I think Apple is the company to do it.
Any time Apple hasn't been the first to do something, they've
been the best "latecomer" around. Think of the iPod: The portable
music market was already taking off with a variety of MP3 players.
Apple certainly wasn't first out of the gate. But they watched,
they listened, they innovated - and then they dominated. And their
dominance with the iPod is deserved: Their product is the coolest,
the most functional, and the best all around.
They could do the same for the Media PC. In fact, many have
speculated that the Mac mini
was intended to become exactly that. Certainly the recent revisions
to the G5 iMac demonstrate
a truly media-oriented machine. And the backend support from iTunes
continues to grow in that direction.
There are a lot of Media PCs on the market, but all of the
reviews complain. Either they are difficult to set up (a problem
for the "VCR blinks 12:00" crowd), cumbersome or impossible to
integrate with existing networks (a problem for the techie crowd),
or they don't reliably deliver on the promises they make with
regard to function (a problem with, well, everyone). Or all
three.
In other words, the just aren't useable.
Apple may offer us the solution. Come into my living room,
Apple, and make my media dreams come true.
(Continued) Open-Source Innovation
I'm a growing fan of open-source software. Sure, I like that
it's free - who doesn't? - but there's more to it than that. I
think the open-source movement is simply good citizenship. In fact,
it's downright altruistic.
I don't like paying for software any more than the next guy, but
I'm willing to do it to get what I need. Most freeware, and even a
lot of shareware, can't compete with full-fledged commercial
applications in terms of feature complexity and code debugging. But
open-source can, and it often does.
It's exciting to see the state of Massachusetts decide to go
with the open-source OpenDocument standard, rather than Microsoft's
proprietary .doc standard. Not just because it represents a chink
in Microsoft's monopolistic armor, but because it promotes
open-source to a level of legitimacy that it had not publicly held
before.
I think the same thing about IBM's initiatives to promote
open-source development.
Programs like Nvu (for website
development), Fire and
Adium (for instant messaging),
and GanttProject
(for project management chart building) are great alternatives to
paying big bucks - or even medium bucks - for commercial
equivalents (such as GoLive and Merlin) or for being stuck with a
proprietary product (such as MSN Messenger, Yahoo Messenger, and
AIM).
Even OpenOffice and NeoOffice are pretty decent alternatives,
although I'm less satisfied with either's implementation.
Let's just say, here's to you, open-source - may you continue to
thrive in 2006.
Those are my hopes for 2006. Check back at the end of the year
for a follow-up. We'll see how on-the-mark I was. 
