With about 50% of US households owning iPods and Apple holding on to
over 70% market share, real growth has to come from abroad and from new
markets, such as encouraging low cost paid-for-podcasts to take over
from Music radio, discussed in How Apple Could Change the Face
of Digital Music.
Hearing Loss
Baby Boomers are now in the age group where hearing loss is more and
more of a problem. Aging rock musicians, many of whom sacrificed their
hearing to over-amplified speakers at gigs, typify the problem. Trouble
is, in western cultures, few want to admit they are getting older, and
hearing loss is a sign of aging. With younger people, it is a sign of
imperfection and again something most want to hide, as it can also
lead to
prejudice because of the association with aging and diminished
mental sharpness.
The natural reaction is to leave using a hearing aid until it is
difficult to function without one, making this for many a vanity
market. Ads typically show young looking older people with hard-to-see
hearing aids. In other words, miniaturisation rules the current
market.
Now, thanks to Apple, white earbuds are everywhere. Because of the
strength of Apple's advertising and sales, white earbuds mean an iPod.
So instead of trying to hide the hearing aid, people could hide it in
plain sight with a suitably modified iPod and earbuds. While this will
not solve the problem for everyone with hearing loss, it will for many
- and in particular the majority who would benefit but still try to get
by without a hearing aid.
A Big Market
In Europe over 80
million are affected, ranging from 7% in France, to 20% in Germany,
and to 35% in Spain. According to the FDA, there are at least 25
million Americans who suffer (2005 MarkeTrak Survey
found over 31 million). Judging from the European figures, and because
of the vanity issue, the true numbers could be much higher.
From just the USA and Western Europe, the potential market is over
100 million, most trying to do without a hearing aid. While cities stay
noisy and many people live longer, the numbers will certainly go up.
Worldwide, the market could be larger than the number of iPods sold to
date.
With a "special edition" bundle of a good quality small
microphone/earbuds, the net revenue for Apple would be above the iPod's
usual average selling price and could be $250 to $300 if built around
the iPod touch. So for each 5 million users in this price range, Apple
would add $1.25 billion to $1.5 billion in revenue.
This iPod would become a medical device and thus need appropriate
FDA certification, but for many uses of iPods in hospitals and for
at-home tests for sending to doctors, FDA licenses will be needed
anyway. The demo of a glucose monitoring system from Lifescan at the
March 20 keynote and the medical category in the App Store show that
Apple wants a part of the healthcare market, so it makes sense to put a
team in place to get the necessary licenses.
Education
With the rollout of the iTunes U. there will be more and more
reasons for iPods in the classroom. The faster iPods become part of
lessons, the sooner Apple will have a stronger hold in education, and
helping the 1-in-10 young Americans with hearing difficulties can only
accelerate this. In the meantime, being able to keep their iPods on in
the classroom when the others can't will lead to more kids getting
treated earlier. It may also lead to fewer hearing-related, attention
deficit problems in class.
This special edition will also make iPods much more attractive to
senior citizens, a market that largely looks on the iPod as "something
for teenagers" and has yet to take it up in large numbers. This is a
market where many have enough income, above their largely fixed
expenses, to afford to buy this. Taking over this market will also make
Apple the most attractive option for speech-to-text software on mobile
devices, as many like to see it in writing to make sure they haven't
misheard.
Theatre
This is also a chance to effectively build iPods into the
infrastructure. Many theatres, cinemas, etc. have induction loops so
those with hearing aids can listen to the sound while enjoying the
performance. It would be cheaper to install a WiFi channel. Everyone
else with an iPod touch or iPhone would benefit too, as we could have
the level of sound we want, and it would cut out the noise of popcorn
and people talking.
With foreign language films everyone would have the choice of dubbed
and original, removing any need for subtitling. In the home too, we
could get away from walking into a room where the TV or radio is
blaring.
Generally, the more it is promoted for other uses such as recording
notes and podcasts, the more acceptable it will become to have the
special edition. With more and more buildings, businesses, and homes
having WiFi, the more useful apps (especially business apps) will
become available, and the more carrying around an iPod touch (or
iPhone) will seem natural.
Being the first choice of many millions more should bring them to
try out other Apple hardware. Vanity may bring many to Apple retail
stores, where they can buy the iPod "for other reasons", particularly
when they see employees using iPods this way. It will make buying the
special edition part of the standard shopping experience and much
easier for many to do.
In the future, the complaint that gramps doesn't have his hearing
aid on will be even more true - he'll be listening to classic rock
while his kids talk about the stuff he's heard before.
For another generation, one of the causes of hearing loss will be
playing their iPods too loudly.
