Apple's forthcoming iPhone is an exciting product - it
has been called the biggest
product release in consumer electronics history. Clearly, Apple and
AT&T (formerly Cingular) are investing huge amounts of resources
into its development and release.
It will be very good for Apple. Like the iPod and Apple TV, the
iPhone will draw a lot of positive attention to Apple and, more
importantly, to Macs. Just as some who have been introduced to Apple's
efficient simplicity through the iPod (and more recently Apple TV) have
considered Macs more seriously, iPhone will likewise cause others to
give Macs a good look - probably more so because iPhone sports a
version of OS X.
In support of Apple, I hope they reach and exceed their goal of
8-million-plus iPhones sold in the first year.
Further, the iPhone fills a much-needed niche for mobile devices: a
true all-in-one (phone, PDA, iPod) device that is (presumably) easy to
use and "just works". Regular Efficient
Mac User readers will recognize that it has been on my wish list
for two years in a row (see Five Things
I Hope to See in 2006 and 2007 Wish
List: iPhone, iTV, Leopard, and More Independent Software
Development). I've been wanting an iPhone for a few years. I even
switched my mobile carrier to AT&T (nee Cingular) a year ago in
anticipation, since the ROKR was available only though Cingular. (A
lucky guess or a futurist's intuition? You decide....)
Why, then, am I announcing that I won't be getting one? Why
won't I be one of those first eight million?
I have my reasons. They may not fit you, but they make good sense to
me.
Remember the 1st Generation iPod?
I didn't buy an iPod in 2001. In fact, I wasn't aware of the
announcement until months later. But I've seen (and used) one of those
"first-gen" iPods, and I'm glad I didn't shell out the $500 back
then.
I'm a Low End kind of guy - I don't need the best and latest to be
satisfied in my computing. But I've also found that the "lowest end"
doesn't suit me. While the Blue &
White G3 Yosemite that I owned could run OS X 10.4
"Tiger", I much prefer the G4
Quicksilver that I now have. Similarly, I don't need a 5.5G,
full-color, 80 GB video iPod; my 4G monochrome 20 GB iPod is just fine
for my needs. But I do like the click-wheel and unified buttons - which
weren't available in the first generation.
Likewise, I anticipate that the second generation iPhone - which I
expect to see around Christmas 2007 or Macworld 2008 - will offer a
number of improvements on the hardware, capacity, and expandability. It
may also bring 3G communications, which is apparently a big deal to
those who know the ins and outs of mobile telecommunications.
And, of course, there will be bugs in both hardware and software
that another generation will work out. (Remember the too-hot batteries
in the first-gen MacBooks?) I'm
happy to wait a while and let my first investment be for version 2,
with all its refinements.
Need It?
I can see the day when constant access to the 'Net will be very
useful to me. Whether it is to check email, connect to Web apps like
37Signals' BackPack or Highrise, or access and sync files on my
desktop computer via VNC and FTP, this will be very helpful in my
future. Unsurprisingly, the iPhone will do the Internet very well and
will be a great tool when the need comes.
But for now, I don't need an increase in Web/Internet access. What I
really need is to use them more efficiently when I'm at a computer -
which means continuing to scale down my blog reading, further
improvements in my email efficiency, and better workflows for the
things I do most.
Until those mobile functions become a necessity for my work and life
- and while I continue to refine my Internet efficiency - I can (and
should) refrain from investing the money and time into the luxury of
more ways to access the Internet. This means I don't need an iPhone
for now.
My Wife Won't Let Me Spend the Money
Okay, it's not really fair to blame this on my wife. Really, this is
a practical concern for me as well. The cost of the iPhone is $499 for
a 4 GB model, $599 for an 8 GB model. That's a lot of money
for anyone.
The interesting thing is, the original iPod cost $399 for 5 GB
and $499 for 10 GB when it was first available too. Now the
top-of-the-line iPod - with 80 GB of storage - costs only $349. An
8 GB iPod nano, the model closest in capacity to the first
generation 10 GB, costs just $249 (a 4 GB nano is just $199). In
other words, the same sizes in today's models cost half what they did
at the iPod's introduction in 2001, while the top model, with eight
times the storage, costs $150 less than the original.
My guess is that the iPhone's prices will do the same thing over
time. With NAND flash prices dropping steadily - and once production
ramps up to rates similar to the iPod - the hard costs of iPhone
production will plummet.
Meanwhile, the cost of mobile phone service is also dropping,
including the Internet access packages, and will also represent ways to
make the iPhone more affordable in time. A service package that costs
$75-90 per month now (including both voice and Internet service) may
cost less than $50 a year from now.
In short, those of us who must be cost-cautious when approaching the
iPhone may find that waiting 12-18 months is a must: Even if the actual
cost of the iPhone itself doesn't drop (the iPod's cost didn't drop for
the first three years, although capacity did increase), service
provider costs likely will. And the money spent on the iPhone in the
future will represent a greater return on investment, as it will
probably have higher capacity, improved features, and even greater
reliability.
Bargains To Be Had
Here's my educated guess: Once the iPhone is released, the whole
market will experience a boom. Why? Because in competition with the
iPhone, longtime smartphone makers like Research in Motion (maker of
the Blackberry line) and Palm, as well as mainstream mobile phone
makers like Nokia and Samsung, who also make smartphones, will drop
their prices and make them ultra-competitive. You can already find a
Samsung Blackjack and a Nokia E62 for less than $100 with a 2-year
service plan through Cingular. Higher-end smartphones like RIM's
Blackberry Pearl, Blackberry 8700, and Blackberry 8800, and Palm's Treo
680 and Treo 750, can be had in the $149-$299 range. In short, current
smartphones are already $200 less than the iPhone.
My bet is that new models and reduced prices will be offered en
masse in June, making the options for a smartphone shopper wide-open.
No, none of these are anything close to the iPhone in capabilities -
which is why the iPhone is sure to be the clear winner in the long run.
But for the short term, someone who needs or wants a smartphone (but
can't or won't spend $499 for an iPhone) will find that, come June, the
options for real bargains will be easily found.
I might just invest $30 in a refurbished Nokia
E62 to tide me over while I wait for the iPhone to mature. Yeah, I
can afford that.
Service Plan Snags
It turns out I couldn't get the iPhone in June if I wanted to. When
I signed up with Cingular, I agreed to a two-year contract at that
point. That was one year ago last month - so I still have 11 months to
go with my current contract.
However, Cingular/AT&T's policies forbid renewing of contracts
before a certain point in an existing contract; in other words, I can't
renew for another several months. But the purchase of an iPhone
requires a new 2-year contract with Cingular/AT&T. The
actual number of months varies for each contract holder, based on a
factors like how long you have been a Cingular/AT&T customer and if
your account has ever been past due.
For me, the limit is 21 months, so I'll be eligible to renew in
January 2008. (Of course, I could buy an iPhone and sign up with a
completely new contract - which would run parallel to my existing
contract. But let me refer you back to point #3....)
This snag may end up making a lot of would-be iPhone buyers angry,
unless Cingular/AT&T comes up with a workaround exception for them.
If not, it may be that most initial buyers of the iPhone in June and
July will be service provider switchers.
Concluding Thoughts
I'm sure I will eventually get an iPhone. Who knows? Circumstances
may allow for me to get one a lot sooner than I think. For now, though,
my plan is to find a stopgap measure, then wait until the time is right
for the iPhone for me - when the cost is lower, the features and
capacity are higher, and the need is greater.
Oh, and when my Cingular/AT&T contract allows it! 
