Steve Wozniak's
remarks to the Telegraph show how easy it is to not see life
outside the Valley - and that his strength for Apple wasn't
marketing:
"The iPod has sort of lived a long life at number one," he says.
"Things like, that if you look back to transistor radios and Walkmans,
they kind of die out after a while.
"It's kind of like everyone has got one or two or three. You get to
a point when they are on display everywhere, they get real cheap and
they are not selling as much."
Compared to Walkmans, launched by Sony in 1979,
the iPod hasn't had a long life at number one. The Walkman era was only
really over with the launch of the iPod - and even today Amazon sells
cassette -based Walkman models. Simple math shows too, that with sales
of over 160 million iPods and 40-50% of those outside the US, the
majority of Americans don't even own one. With over 340 million
Walkmans sold, iPod apparently has a long way to go.
Walkman sales, its long life as number 1, and that for the iPod the
real Crossing
the Chasm came in the Christmas quarter 2003 - and sales are
still increasing - suggests that the iPod is still somewhere in the
"Early Majority" phase in the technology
adoption life cycle.
For most people, the Internet has yet to replace word of mouth, and
it can take a long time for people to become comfortable with a
technology through seeing friends with it and deciding that they want
one too, particularly if they don't get the constant visual feedback
from living in a city. Worldwide sales of PCs and cellphones are still
increasing despite being available for much longer than the iPod and
being used by more people.
Walkman had one large advantage over the iPod - the simplicity of
the technology. Anyone could put in a cassette and press play. However,
this simplicity made it easy for other manufacturers to enter the
market, and Sony never had iPod's dominant US market share of over
70%.
It was the cassette, not the Walkman, that was played in the car. In
a
TMCnet article, iSupply figures 58% of new US cars in 2009 will
have iPod support, up from 39% in 2008. Since so many listen to music
and recordings in the car, this alone will make more people want
one.
Also, iPods are busy entering new and larger markets than were
available to the Walkman. While the market for recorded music is about
the same size (in usage, not dollars) those, for example, in audio
books, podcasts, education, and mobile video either didn't exist or are
much larger. They will continue to grow too, as many more people can
afford to buy an iPod.
Some will use their cellphone for this instead, but others, although
attracted by an iPhone, will be put off by the premium pricing of the
"network provider" package and buy a cheap phone, a cheap minutes +
text package, and an iPod
touch.
If Apple wants to maximise the market, it still has plenty to do
before technophobes find iPods "Walkman easy". The idea of managing the
iPod through a computer is enough to put many of them off and a huge
disincentive for those who don't have easy access to their own or a
family computer.
Even if you ignore the iPhone being a super high-end iPod - it was
launched by another Steve as a widescreen iPod, new mobile phone, and
Internet communications device - and it looks as though iPod sales are
stuck at 50-60 million per year, this doesn't mean that sales will
start a strong decline any time soon. On October 21st, I expect Apple
to report sales of over 11 million - up over 10% from last year.
Indeed, sales for the next few years will be more determined by the
strength of the world economy than by everyone having one, and with the
new and larger markets available iPod, should exceed the Walkman
numbers eventually.
One day the iPod will die - when Apple finds it is no longer
profitable to sell standalone digital music and video players - but
that day looks to be way off in the future. 
